AFC Championship Preview

Updated: Feb 9

(3 PM Sunday)

The QB’s:

I project a high scoring affair in this contest. Burrow and company will need to come out firing and should be able to rack up the yards. Mahomes will need to play with his foot on the gas in this one as well. On Burrow, I love the fact that the Chiefs play mainly man coverage, which Burrow eats against.

One and Done Plays:

-Joe Burrow- I do expect an exciting game, one in which the Chiefs should win. Save Mahomes for the Bowl while getting Burrows points on his way out the door.

Props to Target:

Joe Burrow 284.5 Pass Yards

-OVER- Man Coverage and a projected high scoring game will push his pass yardage well North of this line on DK. In the previous matchup he passed for over 440 yards.

Patrick Mahomes 288.5 Pass Yards

-OVER- Like I said Mahomes will need to play with his foot on the accelerator all game long which means this yardage total is just too low. I have Mahomes projected for at least 296.5 pass yards in this one.

The RB’s:

Mixon will see the bulk of the work in this backfield. Last week we saw him used more as a receiver out of the backfield which is great for fantasy. CEH and McKinnon shared backfield work against Buffalo, with McKinnon out snapping CEH 70/30, but I think CEH was being eased back in.

One and Done Plays:

-Joe Mixon- If you haven’t used him yet congratulations because this is the week to use him as your RB1. Like I stated above I fully expect Mixon and company to fall just short of the Super Bowl, so get those important points now.

-KC Backfield- I would lean towards McKinnon over CEH in this one as he appears to have that pass catching role locked up for now. I personally am saving both for the Super Bowl.

Props to Target:

Joe Mixon 64.5 Rush Yards

-UNDER- Game script will not be in his favor as a rusher. Last meeting he only rushed for 46 yards. Not to mention, over the past seven games Mixon has been over this total just once where he went over by .5 yards.

Joe Mixon 25.5 Rec. Yards

-OVER- This number is way to low in my opinion. Mixon has been more involved in the passing attack and should see that trend continue this week. Mixon has been over this total in each of the past four games, including back in week 17 where he caught seven for 40.

The WR’s:

Chase has been an absolute monster this season and I believe he has success again against this KC secondary. Higgins had a dud against the Raiders, but returned to his productive self last week vs Tennessee. Higgins should be involved in this one, but do not expect the same production you received last week. Tyler Boyd is coming off a dud, but he could be in play as that low ADOT safety valve for Burrow. As for KC we know that Hill and Pringle are the safe plays. I like what Hardman has been showing as a runner and receiver, but he still ranks behind all the wide outs mentioned before him.

One and Done Plays:

-Cincy WR’s- Get all of them in your line up if you have them left.

-Byron Pringle- If you have Hill save him. Pringle has emerged as the teams WR2 and is a solid play in this format. Pringle has at least five receptions in 4 of his last 5 games.

Props to Target:

Tyreek Hill 76.5 Receiving Yards

-UNDER- Coming off a big week I expect Hill to come back down to Earth in this one. Hill is averaging just 54.5 yards in two games vs the Bengals (7/68 in 2018 and 6/40 back in week 17).

Ja’Marr Chase 83.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Absolutely exploded in the first meeting catching 11 of 12 for 266 and three touchdowns. Will that happen again, I’d have to say no, but he should be able to get over this line as he has seven times this season.

Tee Higgins 70.5 Receiving Yards

-UNDER- I would not go crazy and throw a ton of cash at this one, but I do like him to fall just short of this line, as he did in first meeting where he caught just 3 for 62.

Tyler Boyd 38.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Set up for a bounce back as that low ADOT target for Burrow, who has speed and talent to break a long one which could see this line fall on just one play.

The TE’s:

Kelce will be heavily involved in this one and a key component to the Chiefs winning this contest. C.J. Uzomah has been on a playoff hot streak and against man coverage should see that streak extended this week.

One and Done Plays:

-C.J. Uzomah- Save Kelce for the SB and get the points from the surprise TE of the Post Season.

Props to Target:

C.J. Uzomah 39.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Saw six targets in the first meeting catching 4 for 32. Despite this I am riding the hot hand of the Bengal TE who has gone over this total easily in each of his last two games (64 and 71).