By: Little Italy (Publisher)
Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853
In this series I will take one player from each team to add to my All 32 Bust Team for 2021.
WR: T.Y. Hilton
Excitement!! This is the word T.Y. Hilton used a week or so ago when describing Wentz’s deep ball, and the Colts likely return to utilizing it after a season with Papa Rivers and his noodle arm at the helm. Unfortunately for me, Excitement and T.Y. Hilton will never be uttered under the same breath in 2021. Do not get me wrong I am appreciative for what Hilton has meant to us fantasy owners over the years, as he has been one of the most sought after commodities in drafts. However, over the last two seasons it is clear that father time has come calling. The Keeper of Time has penetrated this once great fantasy asset with his unforgiving injury scythe more than once since 2019. During this time, we have seen the aging veteran suffer a multitude of soft tissue injuries including a torn calf and strains to pretty much his entire lower body including the groin, hamstring, and quad. Entering his age 32 season I envision more of the same cruel treatment on the injury front for Hilton.
Many fantasy owners are going to recall the last six game stretch last season that saw Hilton explode, but do not fall for this fantasy mirage. The fact is Hilton dominated this stretch because of five games against defenses that ranked 26th or worse in pass defense DVOA. It was during this stretch when he faced the Texans twice, the Raiders, the Titans, and the Jaguars that Hilton scored his five touchdowns for 2020. The rest of the season his numbers were very poor as he finished 50th ranked or worse in multiple categories such as, target separation, yards per route run, and contested catch rate. Hilton also finished with a 90.9 passer rating when targeted, which was 70th among all wide receivers.
With a current ADP of WR52 (125.2 overall) Hilton is affordable, however with the age, injury concern, and track record of taking time to click with his quarterback I am staying clear. I would much rather seize Parris Campbell at his current ADP of WR75 (160.3 overall), as his upside and value are more appealing to me. I would not also think twice about gobbling up Michael Pittman Jr. shares at his current WR39 (98.4 overall) ADP over Hilton, as I think he is primed for a breakout in 2021 as the lead dog in this Colts passing attack.
“Thank you T.Y. for the amazing fantasy ride, but the feeling of BUST in 2021 is too strong to hide.” - Quote the Italian never more.