*Lines coming from FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook*
Sam Darnold (NYJ)
Line: 3,559.5 Total Passing Yards
In 13 games last season Darnold threw for 3,024 yards which comes out to 233 yards per game. In areas Darnold saw improvement from year one to two which is a promising sign. For instance Darnold’s completion percentage went up five points, and the fact that his yards per attempt stayed the same is good. The team’s attempts to stabilize an atrocious offensive line will also be working in Darnold’s favor.
Godfather Says: Confidently bet the over
Josh Allen (BUF)
Line: 3,300.5 Total Passing Yards
In 16 games last season Josh Allen threw for 3,089 yards, which comes out to about 193 yards a game. We all know Allen does most of his damage as a runner as he struggles with accuracy of throws. This could be why they went and brought in Stefon Diggs to add to Allen’s arsenal of pass catchers that feature John Brown and Cole Beasley. The fact that Bills are a run first offense, as he only attempted 28 passes a game; I have difficulty seeing much improvement in the passing attack despite the Diggs addition. If anything a similar line from 2019 is probably the ceiling in this category.
Godfather Says: Bet the under
Patriots Starting QB Week 1
Line: Stidham (+450), Hoyer (+3300), Newton (-715)
Basically we were viewing this as a two man race before the Cam signing. Stidham (-500) was the bet to make. Cam was part of the betting line prior to being signed with (+850) odds. Now that he has in fact signed we feel Newton has the edge to be the week one starter for this club. The books agree as he has becomes the heavy favorite with (-715) odds. Stidham now sets as the underdog with (+450) odds. If you want to bank on the preseason love fest between McDaniels and Stidham then take the under dog line, because he could open as the day one starter, as he has experience in the system where Cam has no experience. The team depending on the lack of off season on field work may error on the side of caution and let the second year signal caller get the nod until Cam is up to speed. Ya we know we don't think that happens either.
Godfather Says: Gut feeling is Newton (-715)
Dolphins Starting QB Week 1
Line: Fitzpatrick (-278), Tua (+236), Rosen (+2500)
We can eliminate Rosen from contention, as I don’t see him being in the mix for this starting gig at any point in 2020. So it comes down to the rookie Tua and the veteran Fitzpatrick. Even though the odds are better for Tua the line tells us he’s a bit of a long shot to get the nod week one. Fitzpatrick was last year’s starter as well as has experience in the new Gailey offense the Dolphins will be running. The line tells us we should be all in on Fitzpatrick.
Godfather Says: The right answer is Fitzmagic (-278)
Sam Darnold (NYJ)
Line: 19.5 Passing Touchdowns
In 13 games last season Darnold threw 19 touchdowns, which comes out to 1.46 per game. This off season the team brought in Perriman and Mims who will give the team big bodied receivers for Darnold to target on the perimeter. The team will also hopefully get Chris Herndon on the field at tight end that would give Darnold a boost.
Godfather Says: Bet the over
Josh Allen (BUF)
Line: 21.5 Passing Touchdowns
2019 saw Allen throw 20 touchdowns which is encouraging. The addition of Diggs and another year of seasoning under his belt in this offense should be enough to push him up in this category. The offensive line is solid in front of him and he has solid backs behind him. The backs will allow for a pretty dangerous play action game which will aide Allen.
Godfather Says: Lean towards the over