*Lines being used from FanDuel Sportsbook*
Alvin Kamara (NO)
Line: 1,549.50 Total Yards
In 2019 Kamara put up 1,330 total yards in 14 games. This total averaged out to be around 95 yards per outing. So if we take that average and add the two games he missed we come up with 1,520 total yards. This would put us under the line for 2020. We have to take in account that Kamara was far from 100% last year which contributed to the low number, but we must also factor in the addition of Emmanuel Sanders to his 2020 projection, which is a negative. We know Michael Thomas will be the first target on most plays, then Sanders, then Jared Cook who will be entering his second year with the team. This leaves Kamara as Bree’s 4th target on most passing plays. Kamara in his professional career thus far has done his damage through the air netting 81 catches a year the past three seasons. So with him now being down the pecking order in terms of targets, we see a down tick in receptions thus smaller yardage total.
Little Italy Says: We smash the under
Derrick Henry (TEN)
Line: 1,509.5 Total Yards
In 2019 Henry was fully unleashed and lived up to his full potential as Tennessee rode him like the workhorse he is. Henry despite missing one game rushed for 1,540 yards and caught some balls for an additional 206 yards giving him a total of 1,746 yards. Henry averaged over 20.2 carries a game in 2019 and should be given the same workload. The only thing that has changed for this season is the edition of Darrynton Evans who comes in to back up Henry and absorb the Dion Lewis role. This addition can be viewed as a bit of a negative as Evans figures to receive the passing work, and if Tennessee finds themselves playing catchup in games Henry will disappear. However the sheer volume should still be there for Henry to meet this line.
Little Italy Says: Roll with the Over
Christian McCaffrey (CAR)
Line: 2,099 Total Yards
In 2019 CMC put on a clinic as runner and as a pass catcher piling up just under 2,400 total yards. McCaffrey now finds himself in a new scheme as Joe Brady is set to take over play calling duties as the team’s offensive coordinator. We have to look at what Brady has done and we can just look at last year when he helped turn a LSU passing attack into a juggernaut. Brady did a great job in getting Clyde Edwards Helaire the ball in the passing game on his way to his best season and eventually being the first back taken in the 2020 draft. So we should feel good about that. We should also feel good in the fact that Brady spent two seasons learning under now division rival Sean Payton in New Orleans. If you are still not convinced don’t forget that CMC now has captain check down, Teddy Bridgewater, under center. All this adds up to another solid year for McCaffrey, who may not reach the 2,400 yard mark but will no doubt be able to smash this line.
Little Italy Says: Take the over all day
Zeke Elliott (DAL)
Line: 1,734.5 Total Yards
Zeke is a volume back who has averaged around 18.5 touches a game. Last season Zeke was involved in the passing game snagging 54 balls. The thing that concerns us this season is will he continue to be used in the passing game. Mike McCarthy takes over as the new head coach and traditionally ran with 11 personnel, 3 wide sets. So with that said at one time you will have Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin, and first round pick CeeDee Lamb all on the field with Zeke. That is a lot of mouths for Dak to feed. In addition we have to take in account that second year back Tony Pollard will no doubt be looked upon to get more involved, as he is too talented to keep off the field. We can see Dallas limiting Elliott’s workload to keep him fresh for late in the season making this totals line look way to high.
Little Italy Says: Go with the under
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
Line: 1,749 Total Yards
Unlike his division rival above Barkley finds himself in a good spot as he inherits Zeke’s old head coach Jason Garrett. Garrett now finds himself behind enemy lines as the Giants new offensive coordinator and we must look at what a Garrett offense does. A Jason Garrett led offense will look far different then what Giant fans saw the last two years under a Pat Shurmur west coast attack, as Garrett runs the ball first and foremost. On average a Garrett led backfield rushed for over 29 times a game, and who is going to get the majority of those carries? That’s right Saquon Barkley is as Dion Lewis is no threat. So with this volume and his work as a pass catcher we feel this line is very achievable.
Little Italy Says: Big apple, big total, hit the over