J. Herbert OVER 260.5 Pass Yds. (W)
J. Herbert OVER 2.5 Pass TD's (W)
J. Herbert OVER 1.5 Pass TD's (W)
J. Herbert UNDER 15.5 Rush Yds. (W)
J. Herbert OVER .5 INT's (L)
J. Herbert UNDER 34.5 Pass Att. (W)
J. Herbert UNDER 22.5 Comp. (W)
Herbert has gone over this passing yardage in all three of his starts (311, 330, 290). NO has allowed over this total in 2 out of 4 games played (284, 283). At home they are allowing on average 261 passing yards per game. We take Herbert's road average and the Saints number and we like him to throw over this total (275 yards projected). NO has allowed over this 2.5 passing TD number in 3 out of 4 (3,3,3). Herbert has only thrown over this total once (3 in TB last week). We Have Hebert projected with 3 so that tells us Over 2.5 and Over 1.5 pass TD's. NO has not allowed over this 15.5 rush total to QB's at home yet this season (9,12) Herbert has exceeded this rushing total once (18), the other two games 14, 15. Herbert has thrown an INT in every game this season. NO has two games where they have forced an INT, and is averaging 1 INT a game at home. NO is averaging 22.25 completions allowed per game while Herbert is averaging 20 completions on the road. Herbert has also only exceeded this total once (35). Herbert is averaging 35 attempts a game, but that is with a game where he threw the ball 49 times skewing this average. In his other two starts he has thrown under this 34.5 total (33, 25). NO is allowing on average 34.25 attempts per game, but in last two games has allowed 31 and 32 attempts so we lean towards the under here.
D. Brees UNDER 2.5 Pass TD's (W)
D. Brees OVER 1.5 Pass TD's (L)
D. Brees UNDER .5 INT's (L)
Brees is averaging two passing TD's a game. The Chargers are allowing two passing TD's a game. Brees has one game over this 2.5 total, but three over 1.5 total, so this tells us the play is under 2.5 and over 1.5 passing TD's. The Chargers are averaging .5 INT's per game while Brees is also averaging .5 INT's. Brees has thrown 2 INT's this season, but none at home.
A. Kamara UNDER 67.5 Rush Yds. (W)
A. Kamara OVER 46.5 Rec. Yds. (W)
A. Kamara UNDER 16.5 Rush Att. (W)
L. Murray OVER 38.5 Rush Yds. (L)
Kamara is averaging 59 rush yards per game this season, and just 37 rush yards at home. However, over the past three weeks he is averaging 73 rush yards per game. LA is allowing on average 78.75 rush yards per game, which is 4.3 YPC. Kamara sees about 52% of the teams rush attempts per game which is 12.5 carries a game for him. Latavius Murray is seeing 46% of the teams rushing attempts which is roughly 11 per game. Murray has been over this 38.5 rushing total in 3 out of 4 games (48,58,64). Kamara is seeing an average of almost nine targets per game catching 85.7% of these targets, averaging 7 receptions per game. LA is allowing 7.25 receptions per game for 5.3 yards per reception to RB's, not allowing over this number once this season. However Kamara has surpassed this total of 46.5 in three out of four games (51, 95, 139).
J. Kelley OVER 49.5 Rush Yds. (L)
J. Kelley OVER 17.5 Rec. Yds. (L)
Kelley was already seeing 74% of the Chargers rushing attempts in the three games that he and Ekeler played in full. Kelley is averaging 3.34 YPC while the saints are giving up 3.56 YPC and 23.75 carries per game. Kelley is averaging 13 carries per game but with Ekeler out we anticipate that number to be in the neighborhood of 17 attempts. The Saints are giving up 5 catches for 30.25 yards per game, which is 6.05 YPR allowed. Kelley was seeing and catching 100% of his two targets a game. With Ekeler out of the way he vacates roughly 5.6 targets, which we give 40% to Kelley now as that lead dog, brining his projected targets and catches to 4. Kelley has exceeded this 17.5 receiving line twice this season (49 and 26).
Other Player Props to Target:
K. Allen OVER 77.5 Rec. Yds. (L)*
K. Allen OVER 6.5 REC. (L)*
H. Henry OVER 50.5 Rec. Yds. (L)
*Injured in first QT (2-29-1 line)*