Championship Betting Card

Updated: Jan 24, 2021

Stefon Diggs 93.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Diggs has been an elite talent this season for the Bills as Allen's top weapon. In a game that screams shootout, if Mahomes plays, Diggs will be in line for another busy day. This yardage total just seems way to low for what Diggs has done this season against weaker secondary's. The KC secondary started the season as a top six unit in passing DVOA, however since the halfway point this defense has fallen to the 29th ranked unit in this category. Now with this unit likely playing without starting CB Bashaud Breeland Diggs and Brown should be in play to hit over their yardage totals. Diggs in his last six games has gone over the century mark five times, and he will again this Sunday. (L)

John Brown 50.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Like I alluded to above, I feel this combination of game script and a weakened KC secondary opens the door for an over on this yardage total. Gabe Davis is questionable to play, and a tough day projected for Beasley solidifies this as a solid bet this weekend. (L)

Devin Singletary 19.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Last week Singletary let me down in failing to hit his relatively low yardage rushing prop. This week that prop is low again (39.5), but I am not touching it. Buffalo has shown us what their identity is, and that is a passing team. With that said I feel Singletary will need to be utilized in this game as a pass catcher underneath. Cole Beasley will be essentially erased in this contest with the Honey Badger locking him down. This will create a need and space for Singletary to exceed this prop in a projected high scoring game. (L)

Devin Singletary 2.5 Receptions

-OVER- In a correlating play from the above mentioned prop I like Singletary to pop the over on this prop. Again I think he will be needed in this heavy passing game script. (L)

Chris Godwin 5.5 Receptions

-OVER- Green Bay will look to play a lot of cover 4 in this contest, with Jaire Alexander likely on Antonio Brown on the left side, or shadowing Mike Evans as he did in the first meeting this season. The Bucs will likely get arguably their best receiver in a plus matchup, which is out of the slot. I do see Godwin working mostly from the inside in this contest, meaning he will be funneled the ball on the reg. Godwin will smash this over as he has done five times this season.(L)

Chris Godwin 63.5 receiving Yards

-OVER- Like I mentioned above I foresee a busy day for Godwin out of the slot, which means a game he will see close to double digit targets. When Godwin has seen this type of volume he has surpassed this total in all but one game. I feel this number is just to low for the workload I have him projected with. (W)

Tyreek Hill 5.5 Receptions

-OVER- Ty-Freak has been over this total in 5 of his last 7 games. The Chiefs are going to need to have their foot on the gas all game long in a projected high scoring affair, which means Hill will be active. Hill was held to just 3 catches for 20 yards in the meeting earlier this season, but that was in a game that KC relied on the ground game and CEH, which shouldn't be the case this week. (W)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling 29.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- In the last meeting between these two teams MVS exceeded this total, catching three for thirty two. MVS has exceeded this yardage total in each of his last two contests (87,33). I'm willing to bet he does it once again this week with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, and game script that favors the passing attack. Just don't go crazy on the units laid down. (W)

My Game Theory


This is the first contest of the afternoon and should be a pretty close game. In fact, my projections have this one coming down to a game winning field goal. This is not the first time these teams have met this season either. If you recall, when these teams clashed in Tampa the Packers were just beat up by this Tampa Bay rushing attack. RoJo carried the load as Brady had to do very little. The Tampa defense did a great job confusing Rodgers with their 3-4 base defense and blitz packages. I would expect more of the same out of the unit, but this time the Packers will be ready. I fully expect Rodgers and company going more up tempo in this one. The game will start out slow in the first two quarters and the under will seem in play, don't panic or fall for it for in game betting. The second half will likely be high scoring pushing for over the total. Tampa covers but fails to win in this one.

How I'm Betting: TB(+3.5), GB(ML), OVER 51.5 Total (W,L,W)

Buf @ KC

I fully expect Mahomes to be active in this contest, which is a blessing for those hungry for a high scoring affair. The last time these teams clashed Buffalo went run heavy, which led to them losing the game. Don't look for this to happen again. Buffalo is a pass heavy team and will no doubt come out slinging the rock. KC's secondary has fallen off and is missing key pieces, which bodes well for this passing attack. On the flip side I feel Mahomes will be able to get his weapons (Kelce and Hill) going early and often in this one. This game will come down to the wire and could go either way. I have KC projected as just 2 point home favorites, putting the Bills points in play. KC has covered in just one game since the second half of this season which has me leaning towards Buffalo. As far as the total I'm betting the over, as this round of the playoffs historically plays towards the over (22-12-2). In fact when both teams have averaged 22.25 points or more per game for the season the over has hit 73% of the time since 2003.

How I'm Betting: Buf(+3) and Over 54Total (L, W)