-OVER- This is my slam dunk prop of the week. Patrick Mahomes' first test this post season is against a Cleveland Browns team hot off a shocker in the Steel City last week. I do think this game will offer a lot of fire works from both teams offensively. This offensive explosion will lead to Mahomes scrambling at times and taking what the Cleveland defense gives him. The Browns have allowed the 4th most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season. Not to mention in four of his last five games this season Mahomes has exceeded this total. In his three post season games last year, Mahomes rushed at least seven times in all, making this over pretty much a lock. (L)
Cam Akers 16.5 Rush Attempts
-OVER- There has finally been a changing of the guard to not only this Rams backfield, but their offensive philosophy as the post season goes deeper. Jared Goff to be blunt SUCKS. Yes, he is injured (Thumb), but he sucks without injury as well. It is clear McVay may have finally come to realize this very thing and now has put the Rams championship aspirations in two places, one the defense, and two in the hands of their talented rookie Cam Akers. This prop is a joke and is one that should hit the over very easily. Over the past two games for Akers he has seen 21 and 28 carries, which shows he is the leading runner in this Darrell Henderson-less backfield. The Rams will look to control this game and keep the Packers offense on the sideline, and you do that by running the ball. Akers could see close to 30 carries in this contest. Pound that over like Akers is going to pound the rock. (W)
Cam Akers 70.5 Rush Yards
-OVER- Sticking with the above sentiments about Akers I am betting the over on his rushing yard prop as well. The Packers can be beaten on the ground, in fact, this is how you beat the Packers defense. I fully expect the Rams passing game to be shut down, especially on the perimeter this week. So sorry Mr. Woods your dead to me this week. The Packers did bring in Snack Harrison to help this run defense, but I still think Akers gets it done and gets what he needs to pop this prop towards the over. (W)
-UNDER- This prop here could give me my first (L) because Jackson has been on a tear as of late. Jackson since returning from his battle with Covid has been unbelievable as a runner, and has seemingly found that MVP caliber play. In fact, in 5 of his last 6 games he has gone over this yardage total. Last week alone he gashed the Titans defense for over 135 yards on the ground. So why would I hit the under on this prop? My answer, History. The last time these teams met back in December of 2019, Jackson was held in check as a runner. In that contest he rushed 11 times for just 40 yards. This game will be cold with a chance of some snow in the forecast, which Lamar has never played in. This Bills run defense is bottom rate yes, but they are also very disciplined and matchup very well to the type of player Lamar is. With that said I think he falls short of this total on the ground. (W)
-OVER- This player prop right here is also one I think falls with relatively no trouble. For one, back in that 2019 meeting Singletary carried the ball 17 times for over 85 yards. Secondly, he will have this backfield all to himself, with Moss suffering a serious ankle injury last week. Yes, Devonta Freeman was signed, but come on we know he won't see any action this week, unless the injury bug bites Singletary. This Ravens defense did a great job shutting down Henry last week, but they did that because they knew they had to stack the box to force Tannehill to beat them instead of Henry, like last year. This week they will not be game planning to stop Singletary, meaning this Ravens defense will be focused on the perimeter and shutting down Allen and his passing weapons. This will leave space for Singletary to get some nice run, and in doing so gain enough yardage to hit the over on this prop.(L)
Receiving Player Props to Target
-OVER- The only thing smoother then Beasley spittin' bars is Beasley catching balls this season for the Bills. The Real Slim Beasley has gone over this total in ten games this season. Baltimore has allowed on average per game this season 5.6 receptions for 62.3 to slot receivers. In this contest last season, Beasley snagged four catches, and I think he does it again this week.(L)
Travis Kelce 6.5 Receptions
-OVER- Kelce continued his streak as being the top tight end in the league, in arguably his most dominant season yet. This week I am confident that Kelce has a monster day against this Browns defense. Kelce is currently riding a eight game streak where he has at least seven receptions. After this game that streak will be nine games in a row, hit the over. (W)
-OVER- In a correlating move from the above prop bet, I like Kelce to go well above this total as well. In fact, in his last eight games, Kelce is averaging an insane 114 receiving yards per game. Additionally Kelce has been over this target in ten games this season. Hit the over and sleep like an infant. (W)
Jared Cook 29.5 Receiving Yards
-OVER- We will need to monitor this one, as Cook is questionable with a back injury, but if he goes I like this prop bet to go over. This season Cook has gone over this total in both games played (80,30). If we take that back even further to 2019, Cook also exceeded that yardage mark in both those games as well (41,33). Devin White will be back which is trouble for Cook, but I still like the veteran to surpass this yardage total Sunday Night. (L)
My Game Theory
I know that the Saints swept the Bucs this season, but I do not feel they do it again this week. For one, New Orleans has trouble putting teams away in the post season, and Brady is not the quarterback to toy with in post season games. I feel both teams are going to try and establish the run in this one, which will put the 52 point total out of reach.
How I'm Betting: TB(+3), TB(ML), Under 52 Total (W,W,W)
In theory KC comes in and mops the floor with the Cleveland Browns. In reality I see this going a different way. I think both these defenses will struggle and we see points add up quickly by both teams. Cleveland will rely on Chubb, Hunt, Landry, and Hooper to target this KC defense on the ground and underneath, where they struggle. Mahomes and company will target this secondary which will be victimized by Kelce and Hill. The Browns will cover this spread, the number is just to high. Cleveland lost by double digits only three times out of seventeen games played, week one against the Ravens, week six against the Steelers, and week ten at home in that windy game vs Vegas. Also KC over their last seven games, not counting the week seventeen loss to Chargers, only won by single digit margins.
How I'm Betting: CLE(+10), KC (ML), Over 56.5 Total (W,W,L)
I think the game at Lambeau will be the least action packed of the four this weekend. It feels like it will be a low scoring affair that will feature good defenses and a heavy dose of the run game. The Rams will need to ride Akers to grind clock and try to manufacture points. The Packers will likely need to get Tonyan involved and attack the linebackers, as the Rams cornerback trio and scheme will look to stop Rodgers and Adams. Ultimately, I have the Packers winning by a score of 20-17.
How I'm Betting: GB(ML), Under 45.5 Total (W,L)
This will be the closest contest of the weekend based off my projections. I could see both teams getting the win. I feel both teams matchup very well to each other. Each of these defenses are equipped to handle the skillset of the opposing quarterback. I feel this game plays out similarly to last years meeting, which saw Baltimore getting the win by a score of 24-17. However, this time around I do feel the Bills have just enough to squeak out the win, but I am not confident enough to bet it. I do like the game script to play out towards the under however.
How I'm Betting: Under 50 Total (W)