Brian Flores obviously wanted a change at the OC position after last years poor showing, and did so in a big way by coxing the retired Chan Gailey out of retirement. Gailey’s offense was last seen in the league when he was the OC of the New York Jets, where it found success as a top 10 unit. It was in that stint that Ryan Fitzpatrick had a great season, so this most likely was also a factor brining Gailey in. This and the reputation he has as being able to work with all style of quarterbacks at the various stages of their career, which bodes well for the veteran Fitzpatrick and the rookie Tua. A Gailey offense will no doubt have some spread concepts worked in, but with them brining in Jordan Howard it kind of seems they want a more power run attack. The flow of the game as well as the opponent will dictate how this offense runs. Keep in mind where Flores comes from, he is part of that Belichick coaching tree that knows all about scheming towards the weaknesses of their opponents week to week.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) - we envision Tua being the starter of this team rather quickly in 2020. It may not be week one but it won’t be week 10 either. He was drafted to be their franchise quarterback and he will be given that role rather quickly. Tua is a rhythm timing player and in his time at Alabama was aided in their use of the RPO, run pass option, which helps this style of player. The team will rely upon this skillset to make an offensive line, which ranked last in 2019 according to PFF, look better than it is. In regards to the offensive line the team did make changes and address the need this offseason through the draft. However, many of these guys taken can be viewed more as projects instead of true day one starters, for example USC’s Austin Jackson who is figured to be their offensive tackle of the future enters the league very raw. The staff should design a quick passing game utilizing three to five step drop backs for Tua. This will allow the offense to mask any deficiencies in the offensive line.
*Fantasy Spin: Tua slates in as our QB30 for 2020 just due to the fact that he will not get to start the early games in 2020. Before week 10 we see a Tua takeover, which could bring some growing pains due to the lack of off season work potentially. As far as Dynasty Leagues Tua is an early round must add in all rookie drafts as he should offer many seasons as a high end talent at the position. we currently have Tua entering 2020 ranked as our 14th quarterback in dynasty formats.
Jordan Howard / Matt Breida (RB) - Howard enters 2020 basically as the teams stop gap back, meaning he is definitely not their long term answer at the position. Howard is a good power back that fits well with Flores want to lean more power run. Howard looked very good at times last year in Philadelphia as a runner but the thing we must keep in mind is that this offense will not run through Howard. There will be weeks he has 20+ carries and then there will be weeks he has less than 10. This will be very frustrating to us fantasy owners, but we have to realize that Howard is being asked to be a part of a scheme that will change week to week like I mentioned above. Howard figures to be what Sony Michel has been for the Patriots over the last few seasons. Now if Howard is considered the thunder of the backfield we can consider Breida the lightning. Breida has the speed and ability to get to the outside and do some damage, especially as a receiver. The knock on Breida has been his durability, which he has proven he does not have.
*Fantasy Spin: With the up and down projected touches for Howard and Breida’s injury history it’s easy to see why the excitement isn’t there for these players. However, in terms of Howard and his ADP right now we would be very happy to get him and his RB4 projection. With 200 touches possible this season for Howard we shouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the RB3 territory. As far as Breida he is more of a late round bench filler in our eyes. He should see passing work but durability is the concern which should be real enough to scare off many fantasy owners this season.
DeVante Parker (WR) – prior to last season when Williams went down with his ACL many in the industry had come to terms that Parker was shaping up to be a bust. The seasons prior to last and even the early stages of 2019 Parker underwhelmed and was horrible for not only fantasy football, but NFL football as well. If we look to the time when Williams was injured and measure to the end of the season we see something a bit remarkable coming from a player who was all but written off. Parker went on a terror finishing as wide receiver two behind only Michael Thomas who was in the midst of a historic season in 2019. These two players were the only players to top 800 receiving yards in that span. So what is Parker with Williams is the question we are left asking ourselves. Parker was drafted to be the teams X receiver because of his size and movement. On film he moves and resembles AJ Green, and for the first time last year we finally got to see that talent first hand.
*Fantasy Spin: Parker has shown us he can be two players, one who resembles AJ Green, and one who disappears and disappoints. As we enter 2020 how should we handle Parker, especially with the return of Preston Williams and likely rookie QB under center sooner rather than later. We view Parker as a High End WR3 with upside. However, we find better value in the guy opposite Parker who has a real chance at out producing him in 2020.
Preston Williams (WR) – with a source of ours close to the Dolphins organization we can tell you that the Dolphins are very high on the second year wide receiver. The team viewed the drafting of Williams last season as the steal of the draft because they felt he was the #1 WR prospect in that class. It was the off field issues in college that cost him not only a year of play at the college level, but also cost his draft stock to fall. Prior to his season ending ACL injury last season Williams was leading the league in targets and receptions among the rookies. In addition to leading the rookies he was the clear WR1, ahead of DeVante Parker, as he led the Dolphins in targets, yards, and receptions. The fact that the team didn’t address the wide receiver position in the draft bodes well for how they view Williams. Much like Parker, Williams is a big fast wide out who can win before, during, and after the catch. With the teams likely switch to running more RPO’s which will create more one on one matchups, Williams should be in line for a big season if the knee holds up. This is really the only big concern we have, and with the lack of on field activities this off season will keep us guessing.
*Fantasy Spin: Williams is as gifted as they come and offers a tremendous amount of upside for the 2020 season. There are some concerns when it comes to Williams that knocks him down our rankings. The question mark surrounding how the knee has healed is one concern, and the other his lapses in concentration at times that causes some drops. With all these factors Williams still comes out high for us as we view him as a high end WR4 with immense upside.
Mike Gesicki (TE) – last season Gesicki ranked towards the bottom (30th) in yards per route run, which is important because it measures the efficiency of a player. So this poor ranking tells us Gesicki was very inefficient in 2019. Prior to Preston Williams going down last year Gesicki was a non-factor most weeks as he was the third or fourth target. It wasn’t until the Williams injury that Gesicki and Parker both started seeing double the targets. With a healthy Williams expected to return in 2020 this is concerning. We have to keep in mind that Gesicki is an athletic freak who has drawn compassions to Travis Kelce. He tested unbelievably well at the combine and has a great ability to high point the ball in the end zone. He started slow in college when he played for Penn State before blowing up in his third season. The breakout started at the back end of his second season, very similar to what we saw in 2019. Could history be repeating itself for Gesicki?
*Fantasy Spin: With an ADP currently of him going in the 10th round or later Gesicki is a bit of a tough call for us. His inefficiency in 2019 coupled with the return of Preston Williams really puts a damper on the tight ends upside. On the other hand we have to recall his time in Happy Valley as it took Gesicki a few seasons to adjust to the college level. This could be the case at the pro level as well as he enters season three. For now we have Gesicki as a backend TE1 to high end TE2. We can expect great weeks and also bad weeks where he disappears at times in 2020. As far as in dynasty he is a top prospect at the position with many of the stars at the position being at the end of their professional ropes.
Defense- this defense ranked towards the bottom of the league last year in most categories, so it wasn’t a surprise when the team started to overhaul that side of the ball this off season. The team’s secondary is definitely the strength of this unit and will be relied upon to make plays. The pass rush needs work as well as they ranked last in sacks in 2019 with just 23.
*Fantasy Spin: Stay clear and find a better unit that doesn’t allow the most points per game like the dolphins did last year. We are probably a few years away from this defense being fantasy relevant in normal 12 team leagues. They enter 2020 ranked as our 23 unit.
Strength of Schedule
The Dolphins wide receiver corps will face the third toughest schedule this season. Their playoff schedule does get better as they are projected with the 17th toughest during weeks 14-16. Jordan Howard and Matt Breida will be looking at the 24th toughest schedule during the fantasy regular season. The backs will have the projected 17th toughest schedule during the fantasy playoffs. Tua will face the 27th toughest schedule out of all quarterbacks.