In this next series of articles, I am entitling the Draft Day Beast Series; I wanted to highlight how I build a monster roster every season by following some simple rules during the draft. The first article in this series is how to attack the quarterback position and the rules I follow. I will be looking round by round at when quarterbacks are being taken based off what the NFFC ADP (The most accurate and up to date ADP source we trust at The Elite Fantasy) is telling us. I will compare how the ADP looks to our rankings and offer the best QB targets for the 2020 fantasy season based on these factors.
Now when it comes to the draft and specifically the QB position there is one rule I always follow, and that is fade the top seven quarterbacks. So, with that said, I am not drafting Mahomes, Jackson, Dak, Kyler, Wilson, Watson, or Ryan, who the ADP suggests is a top seven quarterback, but we at The Elite Fantasy don’t agree, as Ryan comes in as our QB9 entering 2020. So, when it comes to the other six QB’s the only way I am drafting any of them is if they fall two rounds past their current ADP. For Mahomes and Jackson a two round slide would put them in the fourth round, which is highly unlikely in a 12 teamer. For Dak, Kyler, and Wilson the two round discount would be the eighth. DeShaun currently has an ADP, which has him coming off the board as the first pick in the seventh, but he falls into that sixth round range with the others.
Round eight is where I am beginning to think about the position, and if either of the above-mentioned quarterbacks are on the board, with the exception of Ryan, I will be taking them in a heartbeat. If all these top ranked QB’s are off the board, I will target my QB7, Carson Wentz. After Wentz I would be looking at Josh Allen who we have as our QB8 entering 2020. Matt Ryan would fit more into the round nine quarterbacks for us, which consists of Brady and Brees. The ADP also suggests Aaron Rodgers is being taken in this group, which is a mistake, as we have him as our QB21 entering the season.
As we enter the “late rounds,” rounds ten and beyond, we find two QB’s we like a lot entering 2020 being taken in the tenth, Matthew Stafford and Daniel Jones. We have Matthew Stafford as our QB12 and Daniel Jones as our QB11. Both these QB’s offer great value and fit that old and fruitful strategy I like to utilize at the position, which is pairing one safe floor guy with one upside guy. Round eleven, we see ADP suggesting Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are the next quarterbacks to come off the board. Out of these two I would go after Baker Mayfield, who I like to bounce back after a disappointing 2019. Round twelve, we find two more quarterbacks who fit that old and fruitful pairing of Ben Roethlisberger and rookie Joe Burrow. Both these QB’s are a value as we have Ben as our QB16 and Burrow our QB15, compared to their ADP of QB17 and QB18, respectively.
The NFFC ADP has Cam, Tannehill, and Jimmy G coming off the board in the thirteenth. I personally do not like any of these guys for my starting QB, however as a backup I would rank the trio as Tannehill, Cam, and Jimmy G. Round fourteen, the ADP has second year QB Drew Lock coming off the board next as the QB22. I would only entertain him in two QB or super flex leagues. I would much rather take a dart throw on Derek Carr and his QB28 ADP in the sixteenth over Lock. Speaking of the sixteenth this is where ADP also has veteran Phil Rivers and second year QB Gardner Minshew coming of the board. Prior to this sixteenth round ADP has Bridgewater, Cousins, and Darnold coming off the board in the fifteenth round. I would target the second-year gun slinger Gardner Minshew and the aforementioned Derek Carr over these quarterbacks and their current ADP. To round out the viable quarterback options for 2020 we find the rookies Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa with a current 18 round ADP in 12 teamers. They certainly make for an intriguing third quarterback in super flex and 2 QB leagues, not single quarterback leagues.
So to recap we fade the top 7 QB’s unless they fall two rounds past ADP. I would begin thinking about the position in round 8 where I will look to add Carson Wentz or Josh Allen. If you miss out on all the quarterbacks up to this point, I would look to the old and fruitful strategy, which again is paring a safe QB with a high upside QB. A perfect execution of this would be drafting a Brady, Ryan, or Brees in the 9th, paired with a Baker Mayfield in round 11 or Joe Burrow in round 12. Perfect late round targets for that backup or second quarterback in super flex or two QB leagues would be Derek Carr and Gardner Minshew in the 16th round. The rookies Tua and Herbert in the 18th round make for intriguing QB3 in those two QB leagues only not redraft.
So, as you can see by fading the quarterbacks early in the draft and targeting the QB’s highlighted above we are able to focus on the RB and WR positions early in drafts. By doing this we are compiling valuable high impact players at positions that make up most of our roster. This is just one rule I use on draft day to help build a contender year after year in my fantasy leagues. Next time we will continue by looking at Rule #2 which deals with the running back position and how I attack it on draft day.