Early Round ADP: Steals & Landmines

In this article, we wanted to take the current ADP (consensus between ESPN, RT Sports, and Fantrax) and break them down into rounds for a 12-team league (PPR). Once we have done that we want to highlight at least two players from each round that we feel is a current ADP steal and one who we think is an ADP landmine. By doing this exercise, we hope to shine a light on those draft day gems(values) and grenades(reach) so you can be sure to recognize each on draft day.

Round One:

(Rd1 ADP) C. McCaffrey (1), S. Barkley(2), Z. Elliott(3), M. Thomas(4), A. Kamara(5), D. Cook(6), D. Henry(7), D. Adams(8), D. Hopkins(9), T. Hill(10), J. Jones(11), J. Mixon(12).

Steal: Joe Mixon

Landmine: DeAndre Hopkins

We have Joe Mixon ranked as a top seven overall talent in our rankings. With that, Mixon’s current ADP of 1.12 is an obvious choice for us to label as a steal in round one. As for the round one landmine, we go with Hopkins. We are not saying Hopkins will bust this season, but it is clear by looking at his current 1.9 ADP he is being over drafted. Hopkins is being the third WR taken when he should not be; we have him ranked as the sixth WR coming in fifteenth in our overall rankings, making him a round two target.

Round Two:

(Rd2 ADP) M. Sanders (13), N. Chubb(14), K. Drake(15), A. Ekeler(16), T. Kelce(17), C. Edwards-Helaire(18), C. Godwin(19), J. Jacobs(20), A. Jones(21), L. Jackson(22), G. Kittle(23), P. Mahomes(24).

Steal: Josh Jacobs

Landmine: Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler

Based on his current ADP of 2.8, we think Las Vegas RB Josh Jacobs is the steal of round two. Jacobs has a real chance at leading the league in rushing in 2020. In addition to that, a 60 catch personal goal for him shows he anticipates an uptick in passing down work in 2020, which if true could put him near the top five at the position. With that said there is no way Chubb and Ekeler should be ahead of him in ADP. This is why we feel these two are the round two landmines. We feel they are both round two talent however, back end round two talent.

Round Three:

(Rd3 ADP) K. Golladay(25), M. Evans(26), L. Fournette(27), T. Gurley(28), A. Robinson(29), D. Moore(30), A. Cooper(31), OBJ(21), JuJu(33), C. Carson(34), L. Bell(35), A. Thielen(36)

Steal: Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson

Landmine: Leonard Fournette

Kenny Golladay and Allen Robinson are the clear cut steals here in round three. In fact, we have them both higher in our rankings then their current ADP’s of 3.1 and 3.5. Both Golladay and Robinson rank as round two picks for us 2.4 and 2.9 respectively. As far as the landmine here in round three, there is only one and only option and that is Leonard Fournette and his current 3.3 ADP. This ADP has him coming off the board as the fifteenth running back, and we say that is disgusting. Fournette comes in significantly lower in our rankings, which puts him, nowhere near this 3.3 ADP.

Round Four:

(Rd4 ADP) Z. Ertz(37), M. Gordon(38), C. Kupp(39), D. Johnson(40), A. Brown(41), C. Sutton(42), M. Andrews(43), J. Conner(44), C. Ridley(45), R. Woods(46), K. Allen(47), J. Taylor(48)

Steal: Robert Woods, Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor

Landmine: Courtland Sutton

With a current ADP of 4.10 making him the nineteenth WR off the board, Woods becomes the steal of the round. We currently have Woods coming into 2020 ranked as our WR13, which makes him a solid third round target. There is no way Courtland Sutton should be coming off the board before woods as he is here with a current ADP of 4.6. We would much rather take a Terry McLaurin over Sutton and this current ADP. Melvin Gordon also comes in as a steal at his current ADP of 4.2. We have Gordon ranked as our RB15 which is third round talent. We also find another steal in Taylor who has a current ADP of 4.12. We have him currently ranked and projected as our RB16, which puts him on that round three/ round four bubble.

Round Five:

(Rd5 ADP) D. Singletary(49), T. Lockett(50), D. Metcalf(51), D. Chark(52), K. Murray(53), D. Waller(54), D. Prescott(55), D. Parker(56), D. Watson(57), R. Wilson(58), T. Hilton(59), S. Diggs(60)

Steal: D.K Metcalf

Landmine: Devin Singletary

With a current ADP of 5.3 Metcalf is an absolute steal for round five. We have him projected and ranked as WR17, which makes him a high fourth round pick. Devin Singletary being taken before players such as Kareem Hunt and Cam Akers should not be happening. The fact that Singletary will likely lose meaningful snaps to rookie Zack Moss makes this ADP of 5.1 way to pricey for our liking.

Round Six:

(Rd6 ADP) T. McLaurin(61), D. Montgomery(62), D. Swift(63), M. Ingram(64), R. Mostert(65), K. Hunt(66), A. Green(67), J. Landry(68), C. Akers(69), T. Boyd(70), E. Engram(71), M. Brown(72)

Steal: Cam Akers and Hollywood Brown

Landmine: D’Andre Swift

Both Cam Akers and Hollywood Brown stand out as steals in round six. We have them both ranked and projected as clear-cut round five picks. Akers comes in ranked as our RB17 entering 2020 which is significantly higher than the RB29 the ADP currently has him at. As far as Hollywood, he is our WR29, which again is slightly higher than the ADP’s WR31 tag. The rookie Swift and his current ADP of 6.3 is too pricy for us. We have him ranked and projected as more of a late seventh to early eight round pick.

Round Seven:

(Rd7 ADP) J. Edelman(73), T. Higbee(74), M. Gallup(75), R. Jones(76), J. White(77), H. Henry(78), R. Gronkowski(79), T. Brady(80), W. Fuller(81), D. Samuel(82), J. Allen(83), D. Brees(84)

Steal: Deebo Samuel

Landmine: Michael Gallup and Rob Gronkowski

This round does not offer us stand out steals, so we will go with Deebo who has an ADP putting him at WR35. We currently have him sitting as our WR30. As far as landmines, Gallup and his WR33 ADP and Gronk with his TE9 ADP just seem a bit too high for our liking. We currently have them as our WR41 and TE13 so should be going at least a round later.

Round Eight:

(Rd8 ADP) M. Ryan(85), T. Cohen(86), M. Jones(87), J. Dobbins(88), J. Howard(89), B. Cooks(90), P. Lindsay(91), A. Rodgers(92), C. Wentz(93), M. Breida(94), K. Johnson(95), J. Cook(96)

Steal: Carson Wentz

Landmine: Phillip Lindsay

Carson Wentz’s ADP had him pegged as the QB12, which compared to our ranking and projections for him make him a very good value. We currently have Him entering 2020 as the QB7, so soak up this value in drafts. Phil Lindsay is the clear choice of landmine at his current ADP making him the RB35. Melvin Gordon is going to see the bulk of the work in this offense so for us Lindsay is best suited for a later round pick. In fact, we have him entering 2020 as the RB53.

List of Gems to Look for During the Early Rounds:

Joe Mixon

Josh Jacobs

Kenny Golladay

Allen Robinson

Robert Woods

Melvin Gordon

Jonathan Taylor

D.K Metcalf

Cam Akers

Hollywood Brown

Deebo Samuel

Carson Wentz

List of Landmines to Avoid During the Early Rounds:

DeAndre Hopkins

Nick Chubb

Austin Ekeler

Leonard Fournette

Courtland Sutton

Devin Singletary

D’Andre Swift

Michael Gallup

Rob Gronkowski

Phillip Lindsay