This is the week to fade the QB position in DFS Showdown Slates. The Jets have been more of a run funnel defense, which makes Carson Wentz ceiling very low this week. Mike White is coming of a strong week filling in for the injured Zach Wilson, but this isn’t the week to get cute and put him into line ups.
As mentioned above, the Jets are a defense you can exploit via the ground game. This means Jonathan Taylor should be in line for a big night. The Jets come into week nine with the 24th ranked run defense DVOA. Not only should Taylor get it done as a runner, but he should also see success as a pass catcher as well, as the Jets are giving up the fourth most receiving yards to the position. With that Nyheim Hines becomes a viable play this week for DFS. The chalk play will be putting Taylor in the captain spot this week, which is the right move.
On the other side of the ball I think we can finally say that the cat is out of the bag when it comes to Michael Carter. After last weeks finish as the RB1 for fantasy many are going to be looking at Carter in DFS, as they should. Certainly by the numbers this is a tough matchup for Carter as a runner, as the Colts come into week 9 with the top ranked in run defense DVOA. The thing is the Jets don’t run the ball much, as Carter gets his in the passing game. This game actually sets up very well for the Jets attack with White under center, as the Colts run a lot of zone, which will allow White to pepper Carter underneath as he has been doing over the past two games. This also makes Ty Johnson a sneaky play as well. Johnson will be overlooked and under owned in this slate, which could become profitable. If Tevin Coleman is out again this week Johnson should see upwards of 12 touches in this one, and as I mentioned before White has been captain check down over the past few weeks as Johnson and Carter have combined for 14 receptions in each of the last two games. I like that trend to continue this week.
We have to monitor the status of Corey Davis, who missed week 8, because if he is out I will be looking at Keelan Cole as a flyer this week. Cole had that unbelievable one handed TD grab overturned last week, but on that play flashed his upside. The coaching staff loves him and like TY Johnson above I feel this game likely will have many over looking him. Denzel Mims ran a route on 70% of the drop backs last week with no Davis and should see similar work if he were to miss out again. It is no secret that I love the rookie Elijah Moore, but he is hard to trust in any given week, which has me looking to the veteran Jamison Crowder who was looked upon often last week by White as well.
As for the Colts side of things, the obvious choice for the Colts is plugging Michael Pittman JR. into your line-ups, as he has emerged as the teams clear cut WR1. Pittman is coming off his best fantasy performance last week, which will have many on him in this Showdown Slate. The thing is the Jets have been quietly good against opposing teams WR1’s. The Jets come in allowing just 37 yards per game and the fewest targets per game to teams opposing WR1’s, which are both league bests. In season long we are starting Pittman, but temper expectations because for Pittman this Jets matchup isn’t as juicy as it appears. With T.Y Hilton out yet again this week due to yet another injury I believe Zach Pascal slots in as the WR2. However, I’m looking at a cheaper option who figures to put up similar production as Pascal, that player is WR Ashton Dulin. Two weeks ago when Hilton was out Dulin ran 69% of the routes per drop back as the Colts WR3. On a shortened week I like that plan to stay pretty much the same, so he makes for a nice cheaper play/ pivot off of Pascal.
As far as Carson Wentz’s favorite position to target, TE, many will be looking to Jack Doyle coming off that TD last week. Doyle has seen his routes run per drop back rise to over 50% over the past few games, however, this matchup has me leaning towards his TE room companion Mo Alie-Cox. Cox is coming off a dud of a game in week eight and is only running a route on just 38% of Wentz’s drop backs. The thing is the matchup suggests that Cox is the better play over Doyle this week, as the Jets will run man coverage. Against man coverage this season Wentz has looked to Cox more than Doyle (9 targets to 3 targets), which isn’t surprising as Cox is a mountain of a man. I like Cox to score in this contest and think he is a must in Showdown Slate line ups.