By: Little Italy (Publisher)
Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853
With the first betting article of the season on the clock, Little Italy selects… His favorite bets to target for night one of the NFL Draft! That’s right baby I am back to deliver my first betting article of the 2021 season, and I am set to hit the ground running. This round one draft card should, key word should, prove to be yet another winning one as I lay out my favorite bets to target on DK Sportsbook for round one of the draft. So let us get right into the action starting with the first overall pick of the draft.
First Overall Pick
-Trevor Lawrence- This should be no surprise here as, the former Clemson signal caller is the odds on favorite to be the Jags new QB with (-10000 odds on DK).
Second Overall Pick
-Zach Wilson- Like Lawrence the pick before this is the safe bet here to make. With Darnold being shipped to the Panthers, the Jets no doubt showed their hand and plans to move forward with a new signal caller, and Wilson likely will be that pick. Could Douglas shock the world and swerve us by taking Fields (+1600), Sure, but Wilson is the safe bet at -2000.
Third Overall Pick
-Trey Lance- Mac Jones (-200) is the guy getting all the buzz here along with Fields (+175), but I have a feeling that Shanahan will want to draft a player with Josh Allen like upside. The Niners will have the luxury to sit Lance(+400) behind Jimmy G before unleashing him on the league, and let’s face it, a team doesn’t trade up giving up what they did for a player like Mac Jones, unless you are the Chicago Bears, I kid I kid, ok not really. Lance is the bet here to make.
First Player not a QB Taken
-Penei Sewell- This for me essentially comes down to just three players Sewell (+175), Pitts (+140), and Chase (+250). The first question I had to ask myself here is what is Atlanta going do at the fourth spot, because that is what will be the deciding factor here. I could see the Falcons very easily taking Pitts here to add yet another weapon to Ryan’s passing attack, however, I believe the Falcons trade out to a QB needy team, The Broncos, here and slide back a few picks. This leaves the Bengals at the the five spot to take the first non-quarterback of the draft. Will the Bengals draft using their heads and take Sewell as they should, or will they look to add one of the top two offensive weapons to the offense. Ultimately, the Bengals will choose to protect their franchise QB and select Sewell, so that the season will end with Burrow upright instead of sidelined.
First Defensive Player Taken
-Kwity Paye- This is a two man race for me as I can only see Paye (+400) or Patrick Surtain (+125) being the pick. Sure the Panthers could nab Surtain, as they are in need of corner help, but I feel they opt to protect new starting quarterback Sam Darnold by going offensive lineman with their pick, so that will push Surtain behind Paye, who I have going to the Cowboys at ten. With Jerry’s man crush Kyle Pitts long gone, the Cowboys choose to add arguably the best edge rusher of this year’s class in Paye to pair with DeMarcus Lawrence.
Total Offensive Players Taken in the First
-UNDER 18.5 (-112) - I have it an even split of sixteen offensive and sixteen defensive players being selected.
Total Defensive Players Taken in the First
-OVER 13.5 (-112) - Even Split remember!!
Total Big Uglies Taken in First
-UNDER 6.5 (-134) – I only have six offensive lineman max being taken in round one, Sewell, Slater, Vera-Tucker, Darrisaw, Jenkins, and Dickerson.
Total First Round QB’s
-UNDER 5.5 (-400) – This should be a slam dunk with only Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Jones being the only signal callers taken in round one in pretty much every industry mock out there.
Total First Round Tight Ends
-UNDER 1.5 (-455) – It is Pitts in the first and no one else, take that to the bank people.
When Will they Be Drafted?
Ja’Marr Chase 6.5 Pick
-UNDER- I'd be flabbergasted if he falls past Miami at six. (-150)
Jaylen Waddle 11.5 Pick
-OVER- The earliest I could see Waddle going is at twelve to the Eagles. (-125)
Kyle Pitts 5.5 Pick
-OVER- This one makes me nervous, but I think if we make it past the fourth pick we are golden. (+101)
DeVonta Smith 11.5 Pick
-UNDER- The Lions (7) and the Giants (11) are my favorites to land the reigning Heisman Trophy Winner. (-121)
Rashawn Slater 10.5 Pick
-UNDER- Slater is a top two offensive lineman in this year’s class, and with positional needy teams inside the top ten I would be shocked to see him fall outside it. The Panthers make the most sense to land Slater, as I believe they opt to add protection for Darnold over securing the top corner in the class Surtain. (-132)
Penei Sewell 5.5 Pick
-UNDER- Cincy has to do the right thing for this one to hit, and I am confident they will. (+108)
Jaycee Horn 13.5 Pick
-UNDER- This will be close but I feel we will inch this on out, as I believe the Chargers make Horn their new starting corner. If Slater is still on the board when the Chargers pick I would be a little nervous, as they could choose to further solidify that offensive line around last year’s rookie of the year Justin Herbert. (-112)
Micah Parsons 11.5 Pick
-OVER- There are two teams I keep mocking Parsons too consistently and those teams are the Patriots (15) and the Raiders (17). The only team inside the top 11 that could use Parsons' elite talent is the Giants at eleven, but I have them adding a top wide out with that pick. (-112)