Over, Under, No Bet: Season Passing Totals

By: Little Italy (Publisher)

Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853


THE OVERS:


Carson Wentz 3,750.5 Pass Yards

-OVER- Carson Wentz has been dreadful the last few seasons as a passer that we will not deny. However, he is finally free of Doug Peterson’s grasp and reunited with his old friend Frank Reich, the man responsible for Wentz’s 2017 Pro Bowl season. In 13 games played that season, Wentz averaged 253.5 pass yards per game. The fact that Rivers and his noodle arm put up 4,100 yards in this scheme last year has me all in on Wentz hitting the over on this total which is (+100) right now on DK Sportsbook.


Baker Mayfield 3,850.5 Pass Yards

-OVER- Mayfield finished his first season in the Stefanski system with 3,563 pass yards. This number is a bit of a mirage as Baker had a slow start to the season before hitting his groove in the second half of the season where he averaged 273.5 pass yards per game. There is no doubt Cleveland is a run based team with a defense that will be very good this season, but I still project Mayfield to surpass this total in 2021. In fact, I have him projected with 3,942.5 pass yards this season which has me hitting the over at (-112) on DK Sportsbook.


Tom Brady 4,500.5 Pass Yards

-OVER- In his first season in the Tampa system Brady hit over this total throwing for 4,633 yards in 2020. Brady did this without fully knowing/having full comfort with the playbook. Now with a full off season and a familiarity with the system on lock Brady is primed to once again go over this total. I have him projected with 4,611 passing yards in 2021 which has me smashing the Over at (-103) on DK Sportsbook.


Daniel Jones 3,800.5 Pass Yards

-OVER- In 14 games played last season Daniel Jones averaged 210.2 passing yards per game with a below average supporting cast. This off-season the front office went out and got Jones a true WR1 as well as an explosive wild card in Kadarius Toney in this year’s draft. Oh and let’s not forget, the team will have one of the league’s best RB’s back to help take the pressure off of Jones, at least we hope. By no means is this a slam dunk to hit the over, but my projections have him just going over with 3,868.5 passing yards, which is enough to have me place the Over (-112) bet on DK Sportsbook.


Lamar Jackson 3,200.5 Pass yards

-OVER- Over the last two season (30 Games) Lamar has averaged 196.1 pass yards per game. I project this average to go up a few yards with the team wanting to become more of a balanced offense. My projections reflect this, as I have Lamar throwing for 3,375.5 passing yards, which has me more than comfortable in hitting the over at (-125) on DK Sportsbook.


Kirk Cousins 4,100.5 Pass Yards

-OVER- Kirk Cousins has been over this total in two of the last three seasons. Despite this being a run based offense Kirk has the high-end weapons at his disposal to make him a lock to hit the over here, which is (-112) on DK Sportsbook. In addition, Kirk just does not miss time, which I baked into my projections where I have him finishing the season with 4,267.5 passing yards, making this an easy over.


THE UNDERS:


Matt Ryan 4,500.5 Pass yards

-UNDER- Looking over the past eight seasons Matt Ryan has gone over this total six times. Now we add in an extra game, and the fact that this team does not have a true viable threat at the RB position how could this be anything but an easy over bet. Well the fact is in games without Julio Jones on the field Matt Ryan has played at a lesser level, which will be the case for all games played this season, as Julio is now a Titan. We bake in the fact that he has to learn a new system, which in past seasons hindered his play. The books are trying to get you to take the over here with their (+100), but do not fall for it. My projections heavily favor the under at (-125), as I have Ryan projected with 4,394 passing yards in 2021.


Matthew Stafford 4,700.5 Pass Yards

-UNDER- This is going to be another trap for bettors who are expecting Stafford and this Rams offense to go ballistic this season. We have heard all off-season how the addition of Stafford is going to open up this McVay passing attack, which it will to an extent, but not as much as many would think. Jared Goff never exceeded this total as a Ram, and while Stafford is a better deep ball passer, he has only surpassed this total twice in his career, 2011 putting up over 5K yards and 2012 putting up over 4,900 yards. My projections have him falling short of this line in 2021 with 4,591 passing yards, leading me to take the under at (-134) on DK Sportsbook.


Kyler Murray 4,100.5 Pass Yards

-UNDER- Murray had a notable jump in passing yards per game last year compared to his rookie season, going from 232 passing yards per game to 248 passing yards per game. You could chalk that up to gaining experience as a Pro as well as the addition of arguably the league’s best receiver in D-Hop. Fast forward to year three where the team gave Murray two new weapons in Rondale Moore and Veteran AJ Green, which should mean another increase is sure to follow right? While I do see him having his highest total coming this year in the passing yards column I don’t think it will be enough to take the over here on DK Sportsbook. My projections have Murray coming in under this total with 4,034 Passing yards, leading me to take the under bet at (-112).


Joe Burrow 4,250.5 Pass yards

-UNDER- Last season Joe burrow was on pace for 4,300 passing yards, as he averaged 268.8 YPG through ten games before suffering the season ending knee injury. This off-season the offensive line was upgraded slightly to help keep Burrow upright and under center for a full season. In addition, the team selected the top WR prospect/Burrows former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase which gives him arguably the most talented receiving trio in the league, but will it be enough to surpass this total? My projection tells me it will not be enough as I have him projected with 4,171 passing yards, leading me to take the under at (-112) on DK Sportsbook.


Russell Wilson 4,250.5 Pass Yards

-UNDER- Throughout Wilson’s entire career he has never gone over this season total. In 144 games played, Wilson has averaged 235.73 passing yards per game. Will the extra game be enough for Wilson to finally get over this total? My projections says it will not, as I have him ending the season with 4,145 passing yards. This projection has me taking the under at (-112) on DK Sportsbook.


Josh Allen 4,600.5 Pass Yards

-UNDER- After throwing for 4,544 yards in 16 games last season this bet just screams trap for bettors as the over is currently (+108). Many will look to this high-powered passing offense and the extra game and blindly hit the over. The fact is, I do see this offense still being pass heavy and explosive, but a regression in passing yards for Allen is likely coming. My projections have him throwing for 4,444.5 passing yards which leads me to take the under at (-134) on DK Sportsbook.


Patrick Mahomes 5,050.5 Pass Yards

-UNDER- This is a big number, but if any QB can hit it in 2021, it is Patrick Mahomes. Over the past two seasons, playing in 29 games, Mahomes has averaged 302.4 passing yards per game. The thing is Mahomes has also missed games due to injury over that span, which I took into account in my projections, which saw Mahomes ending the season with 4,998 passing yards, just missing this total. Therefore, I am betting the under at (-118) on DK Sportsbook.


Trevor Lawrence 4,150.5 Pass Yards

-UNDER- Being dubbed the best prospect to come into the league at the position since Andrew Luck should hit the ground running in 2021, but will he hit the over on his first yardage total as a pro? I think the Jags will be a run-based offense looking to control games, which they will have in control. The numbers will come for Lawrence when the team is forced to play from behind, which I project, will be 50% of the time this season. My projections have Lawrence throwing for 4,106 passing yards just missing this line and leading me to bet the under at (-112) on DK Sportsbook.


Tua Tagovailoa 3,850.5 Pass Yards

-UNDER- Though the team brought in Tua’s former college teammate Jaylen Waddle, I don’t think he takes a big enough step to hit the over on this line. In 10 games played last season Tua averaged just 181.4 passing yards per game. My projections have him coming in with a better average then that this season, however it will only total 3,741 passing yards. That number leads me to hitting the under at (-112) on DK Sportsbook.


THE NO BETS:


Zach Wilson 3,850.5 Pass Yards

-NO BET- I think the Jets will look to ease the rookie into the offense. With that easing in, I have him projected very close to this line with 3,849 passing yards. Not touching it!!


Jalen Hurts 3,700.5 Pass Yards

-NO BET- In his starts last season Hurts averaged a very impressive 229.75 pass yards per game. My projections have him compiling 3,747 passing yards in 2021, which is to close for comfort to bet either side, it is a pass.


Ryan Tannehill 4,050.5 Pass Yards

-NO BET- Last season in 16 games played Ryan Tannehill put up 3,819 passing yards (238.7 YPG) and now we add Julio Jones and an extra game to the equation, which should push him closer to this yardage total. My projections reflect this as I currently have him projected with 4,038 passing yards making this bet a no no to target.


Justin Herbert 4,450.5 Pass Yards

-NO BET- Herbert had a great rookie season putting up 4,336 passing yards on his way to the OROY title in 2020. Will he be able to top that performance with a revamped offensive line and new offensive scheme? My projections have him sitting above last year’s total with 4,465.5 yards, making it to close to bet either side.