Raiders @ Bengals (4:30pm- SAT)
Current lines on DK Sportsbook: LVR(+5) Total: 48
How To Bet:
I Love the Raiders side in this one despite being boned by the NFL and their scheduling. This number is just to high. Yes, I get that the Raiders lost 32-13 back in week 11, but this game was 16-13 going into the 5 minute mark of the 4th quarter. The Raiders defense and offensive line have improved over the last month of the season. This one to me is going to come down to a late FG at the end of regulation or even overtime. If the game is close, the Raiders have been the team to back in terms of covering and out right winning. The Raiders are (4-0) in OT this season. In one possession, games this season the Raiders are (7-2). Not to mention against the playoff teams this season the Raiders went (4-4) despite all the bullshit thrown at them with Gruden, Ruggs, and a number of other occurrences.
Now on the other side when looking at Cincy in terms of close games, they are (1-2) in OT this season. In one-possession games they hold a (4-5) record and vs playoff teams this season are (4-2), while going (6-5) vs non-playoff teams this season. There is no question that Cincy has the better offense and should win this game outright. However, as far as which side covers, my money will be backing my favorite team the Raiders (+5). I will also be targeting the Under the total of 48. I just don’t envision this total getting to this number in a cold weather game, plus history and trends tell us that Wildcard Weekend belongs to the Dogs and the Under when talking total, having a 66% rate over the past ten years.
Bets to Place: (LVR (+5), Under 48, Cincy Money Line
Player Props to Target:
Joe Borrow Under 261.5 Passing Yards
Only threw for 148 yards back in week 11. The Raiders did a good job limiting the passing attack in this meeting playing their heavy zone defense. Burrow shreds man coverage but struggles a bit more against zone. Not to mention they will look to control this one on the ground with a healthy Joe Mixon.
Joe Mixon Over 74.5 Rush Yards
Mixon was this offense in week 11 carrying the ball 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns. In terms of anytime TD I’m not betting because the value isn’t there for my liking, but I will be taking a shot at a Mixon First to score Prop.
CJ Uzomah Under 25.5 Receiving Yards
In week 11 he saw only 3 targets catching two for a measly 9 yards. I don’t envision him doing much as he will be asked to block a ton in this contest trying to stop the red hot Maxx Crosby. He will be chipping in the frigid cold most of the afternoon. Also in 16 games played this season CJ has been under this total in 9 games.
Darren Waller Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
Waller should be back to his elite form this weekend after being eased back into action last week. In week 11 Waller torched this secondary for 7 catches and 116 yards. Though I don’t expect that yard total to be that high I do expect him to at least surpass this yardage total of 60.5.
Ja’Marr Chase Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
Many will look at the matchup and the strong rookie campaign that Chase is coming off and quickly hit the over here. DON’T you make that mistake. Yes, Chase has been as advertised and did score in week 11 vs these Raiders, but he only caught 3 for 32. Chase is a man coverage killer and vs zone he receives a bit of a downgrade. I like Higgins more in this one then Chase in terms of DFS, as Higgins is just a hair to cheap not to play on the Saturday slate. Side note Higgins is my WR1 for that slate.
Tyler Boyd Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Boyd likely will see the rookie Hobbs in the slot who has been quite a nice surprise for this Vegas secondary. However, Boyd to me can amass this total with one grab on his way to a 47-yard TD. Why do I say that, because I just keep seeing visions of it, so it has to happen right?
One and Done Targets for this Game:
As I stated above I fully expect the Bengals to squeak a nail biter out here to advance so I will be looking to fire up the following players from the Raiders for one and done leagues.
Derek Carr – Carr likely will have to throw in this one which should lead to a solid day. When trailing the Raiders are second highest in pass rate. So get those points.
Josh Jacobs- Jacobs has been solid as of late and with the rookie Leatherwood and his fellow o-line playing better, mainly from getting that all-important continuity figured out, there is no reason to not expect a solid fantasy day from Jacobs, who I like to score in this one.
Hunter Renfrow- What a pleasant surprise the football librarian has turned out to be this season finishing as a top 12 PPR receiver. Yes he only caught 4 for 30 back in week 11, but I like his chances to be busy inside the secondary of Cincy along side Waller, where you can pick on this Bengal defense.
Darren Waller- Elite tight end likely getting only one game seems like a no brainer for one and done leagues.