The second tier of quarterbacks after the Mahomes/Jackson tier will likely involve some combination of Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, DeShaun Watson, and Russell Wilson. Most would have the rankings broken down in this order:
3.) Kyler Murray
4.) Dak Prescott
5.) DeShaun Watson
6.) Russell Wilson
We get it Kyler Murray is the “IT” pick this season. Everything is falling in line for Kyler as he gets a new weapon in DeAndre Hopkins, he is coming off a mini breakout QB7 fantasy finish at the position last season, he’s on an offense that projects to run the most offensive snaps in 2020, and he knows this offense like the back of his own hand. We get the excitement as we know Kyler is very talented and isn’t afraid to use his legs to make plays. The rushing talent was on display during his rookie season as he rushed for 544 yards. Like we mentioned above he did finish 7th at the position for fantasy last season, but that number is misleading. The 7th place finish at the position is misleading because if you look at the fantasy points per game Kyler actually only ranked 14th at the position. This is the number you want high as consistency is key to dominating in fantasy football. Kyler only had three weeks of top ten production and two weeks of top five production in 2019, so that makes him inconsistent. To us Kyler being ranked third in most consensus rankings is a reach, as he has no business being ahead of players such as Dak and Russell. Kyler has an ADP that has him being taken in the late fourth early fifth range. Ideally we would love to see him last until the eighth, but that is never going to happen. So in looking at Kyler and his year two break out we say no thanks, as there is no value to be had. We have Kyler ranked as our QB5 entering 2020 behind the previously mentioned Dak and Russell.
Now when looking at Dak Prescott, like Kyler, he is genuinely going in that 5th round range as his current ADP illustrates. The knock on Dak coming into 2019 was even though he offered a very safe floor he never offered that ceiling we like our fantasy players to possess. Well what did Dak come out and do? Dak threw for almost 5,000 yards on his way to a QB2 finish only behind Lamar Jackson in 2019. With Dak we know we will get a QB1 weekly finish as he is one of the most consistent at the position, always finishing top 12 at the position. Like we mentioned above this consistency is what wins fantasy championships. Entering 2020 we have Dak ranked as our QB3 because we like his situation. We have a new head coach who likes to utilize the passing attack. In addition, the offensive coordinator who tapped into Dak’s skill set/potential and played to his strengths returns so continuity is there. The team added a stud receiver in this year’s draft in CeeDee Lamb to pair with two solid young ascending players in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Oh and let’s not forget he has one of the best backs in the league behind him in Zeke Elliott. The sky is the limit for Dak this season, who by the way, will also likely be auditioning for a new contract. So this ranking of Dak as the QB3 entering 2020 is a no brainer.
Coming in ranked fourth in our rankings is a player who does nothing but finish top ten at the position year in and year out. Russell Wilson is one of the most consistent/ reliable guys at the position. In addition to being consistent and reliable Russell is also a value in drafts, which has been the case the last few years. Year in and year out it seems Wilson gets disrespected in terms of rankings. We get it, a lot of it has to do with the type of offense he plays in, a very run heavy/ run first attack. The fact is despite this Russell still makes unbelievable plays with his arm as the ground attack sets up the deep passing game beautifully. Wilson is one of the best deep ball passers in the league, as he has the arm strength, the timing, and the touch, which are all important traits to possess if you want to be a deadly deep ball thrower. Russell also can beat a defense for big chunk plays on the ground. When the defense moves back to defend the deep ball Russell will take advantage of the lanes created to gash opposing defenses for big yards. According to Wilson’s ADP he is being taken later than any other player listed in this second tier, usually around the 7th to 8th round range. We will take this value, consistency, and talent all day over Kyler Murray and DeShaun Watson, who are both being taken before him in most drafts.
That leads us to the only player that falls behind Kyler Murray in this tier in our rankings, DeShaun Watson. Watson comes into 2020 ranked as our QB6. Watson has a current ADP of a 6th round pick in drafts being conducted already. This is a switch from years prior which saw Watson being taken in many drafts as the number one or two quarterback taken. The fall in draft position is likely tied into the loss of his star receiver DHop, who ironically goes to the guy ranked just ahead of him in our rankings. The thing is, even though losing Hopkins is a slight downgrade we as fantasy owners can’t go crazy in downgrading him too far. Hopkins isn’t the reason Watson has been so good over the last two seasons, he contributed to it, but he isn’t the main reason. Watson is a valuable asset to us for fantasy because, much like Lamar Jackson, Watson offers a very high floor, thanks in part to his rushing ability. Now Watson will never rush for over 1,000 yards like Lamar did last season, but he will rush for over 500 yards. Watson also is a lock to rush for at least 5 touchdowns every year as well. In 2018 he rushed for 5 scores and last season he rushed for 7. These rushing touchdowns helped contribute to top four finishes at the position for Watson as he finished as the QB4 in 2018 and as the QB3 in 2019.
So to recap we have this tier of quarterbacks ranked differently than most consensus rankings. The only quarterback we may look to target in this range is Russell Wilson, due to his draft day value. We have this tier ranked as followed entering 2020:
3.) Dak Prescott
4.) Russell Wilson
5.) Kyler Murray
6.) DeShaun Watson