All season long we at Prop Bet Fantasy have been giving you great tips to help fatten your wallets, and we want to end the 2020 football season with a bang. So how are we going to do that? It's really quite simple by winning you some fat cash with some top bets to target. For our final piece before turning the page to the 2021 season we have combed the major sports books to find and isolate the best bets to go in on, ranging from player props down to game props, and everything in between. So buckle up and let's win some cash!!!
Points Bets to Target
-UNDER- Highest scoring QT 20.5 (+130 FD)
-OVER- Lowest scoring quarter 3.5 (-210 FD)
-4th QT- More points 4th or 2nd (+105 FD)
-4th QT- Highest scoring Quarter (+200 DK)
-2nd- KC half to score most points (-125 FD)
-2nd- TB half to score most points (-125 FD)
Since 1999 here are the average points scored in each quarter during the Super Bowl:
1st Quarter: 6.41 Points
2nd Quarter: 13.99 Points
3rd Quarter: 10.99 Points
4th Quarter: 17 Points
Be on the look out for a live totals bet early in this one, especially if the game starts out slow, as Tom Brady Super Bowls historically do. In Terms of points being scored before and after halftime, over the last 20 years the second half has out scored the first half 15 times, the exact record for this stat is (15-4-1). With that said we would look for the game total to plummet from 56.5 to significantly lower during the early stages of the game. So with that in mind we would recommend the following live bet target:
-OVER- 43.5 up to 50.5 live total bet (at end of first Qt. into second Qt.)
With the second half historically outscoring the first half we would also target this bet:
-UNDER- 28.5 first half points (-140 FD)
-UNDER- 27.5 first half points (-107 DK)
Coin Toss Bets to Target
We are over 50% convinced, really well over 60%, that Tamps Bay will start the game with the ball. Why are we so confident? Well, let's look at some factors. For one Tampa Bay has yet to win a coin toss this post season, which bodes well for the Chiefs, who always defer to the second half. Ok but what if Tampa wins the toss won't they defer as well, as most teams tend to defer? No, Tampa Bay has been an outlier in that area, just look back to weeks 16 and 17, the last time the Bucs won a toss. What did they choose to do? They wanted the ball to open up the game, and they scored touchdowns on both those drives. With that said this scenario opens up the following bets to target:
-KC- Coin Toss Winner (-106 DK) (-105 MGM)
-TB- First team to score (-114 DK)
-TB- first Quarter Money Line (+107 DK)
DK has a 25% promo to opt in to boost this to (+110)
-TB- First team to get a first down
-NO- Coin winner wins the game (-104 FD)
-KC wins toss and loses game (+375 MGM)-
Game Theory Related Bets
Now before we can look at the next set of suggested bet targets we must first pick a side. Now, many are going on the Chiefs side, which is evident with the money and tickets coming in. However, we are not in that majority. In fact, our pre season predictions had the Bucs winning the Super Bowl, and we still are on that side. We believe Tom Brady and company will outduel Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, propelling Brady to a historic seventh Super Bowl Ring. So with that in mind these are the bets we are targeting:
-QB- Position of MVP (-350 MGM)
-Brady- Wins Super Bowl MVP (+210 DK)(+200 MGM)(+200 FD)
-TB Money- (+140 DK)(+140MGM)(+142 FD)
-TB (+3.5)- Bucs cover spread (-115 MGM)
-TB(+3)- Bucs cover (+100 FD)(-106 DK)
Team Bets to Target
-OVER- KC 22.5 First Downs (-143 DK)
Back in the week 12 matchup between these clubs, KC recorded 26 first downs. In addition to that game the Chiefs went over this mark in all but 5 games this season. Tampa Bay has given up at least 23 first downs in 6 of their last 8 games played, including two of their three post season games, as they allowed over 22 first downs to the Packers two weeks ago, as well as the WFT back in the Wild Card.
-PASS- KC's first play (-103 Points Bet)
Back in the week 12 matchup, KC threw on 72% of their first down plays. This shouldn't be shocking as the Chiefs have essentially gone away from the run game. In fact they threw it on 62% of first downs versus the rest of the NFL. With the Bucs boasting one of, if not, the leagues toughest run defenses, this should be a lock to happen.
-TB- First team to challenge a play (-112 DK)
Andy Reid led the league by far in fewest plays challenged this season with just one.
Game Bets to Target
-UNDER- 11.5 Total Acc. Penalties (-165 FD)
It was clear this year that there were fewer penalties called per game. Likely this was the NFL telling the officials to let the guys play more, for more exciting game play. In addition, the Super Bowl has historically seen fewer flags then any other game played throughout the season. The average number of penalties accepted in the Super Bowl is 10.3.
-UNDER- 6.5 Total Punts (-115 FD)
Kansas City has averaged just 2.9 punts per game this season. On the flip side they have allowed even fewer punts per game with an average of 2.3 this season.
-UNDER 24.5- Jersey of first TD (-103 DK)
Evans, Hill, Brady, Mahomes, Godwin, Hardman, and Watkins are all covered on this side.
First Player to Score Bet Targets
-Mike Evans- (+900 FD) (+900 DK)
-Tyreek Hill- (+600 FD) (+650 DK)
Evans and Hill offer the safest or chalkiest bets to score first. Each leads their respective teams in end zone targets. As it was stated above we see Tampa getting the ball first, and like them to score first so would lean Evans slightly over Hill, but would have no issue putting 1 to 2 units on each.
-Ronald Jones- (+1700 FD) (+1800 DK)
- Sammy Watkins- (+1400 FD) (+2000 DK)
Watkins and Jones are our favorite long shot bets in this category. For Jones we could easily see a scenario where Tampa marches down the field on the opening drive using the passing game and Fournette to get them inside the five yard line. This is where Jones comes in and is used to run it up the middle for the opening drive capping touchdown. As for Watkins, TB has been very generous to secondary wide outs this post season. In fact they have allowed four touchdowns this post season to secondary wide outs, MVS 1, Tre'Quan Smith 2, and Cam Sims 1. We could see Watkins making an early impact in this one with a score. Both these players are worth a shot, and don't hesitate to throw some anytime touchdown bets on all four of these guys.
Player Prop Bet Targets
-OVER- S. Watkins longest Rec.17.5 (-112 DK)
-OVER- S. Watkins 36.5 Rec. Yds. (-112 DK)
As we stated in the last section, Tampa Bay has been giving up a ton of production to secondary receivers this post season. Two weeks ago MVS put up a 4/115/1 Line, Tre' Quan Smith put up a 3/85/2 line in the Divisional Round, and Cam Sims put up a 7/104/1 line in the Wild Card Round. With that production here was the longest reception for each player, MVS (50 yards), Smith (56 Yards), and Sims (36 Yards). All went over this yardage total as well as longest reception total, which we feel is taking in account Watkins return from injury concerns. Watkins should be a full go in this one and has been great for the Chiefs in his last 5 post season games. Watkins is averaging 5/100 per game in those games, which is close to what he put on the field in last years Super Bowl, catching 5/98. Now let's check out Watkins longest receptions in those five games, (30, 50, 38 , 60, and 48). Giddy Up!!
-OVER- L. Fournette 3.5 Rec. (-128 MGM)
Since Bruce Arians has come out and named Fournette their pass catching back he has in fact been their pass catching back. Over the past three post season games Fournette has run a route on 79% (No RoJo), 68%, and 65% of the teams passing plays. With that he has secured 4, 5, 5 receptions in those three games. We feel that continues this week.
-UNDER- D. Williams 8.5 Rush Att. (-134 DK)
-UNDER- D. Williams 45.5 Rush Yds (-152 DK)
We are under the belief that CEH was being eased back in from his hip injury against the Bills in the AFC Championship, which is why he only played on 49% of the teams offensive snaps. Prior to the injury CEH was playing on close to 60% of the teams offensive snaps. Williams is likely going to not be a factor in this game, which is one of the toughest for running backs. This rush attempt line seems like a slam dunk for the under with the combination of tough matchup and lesser work load. Looking at his 13 rush attempts against the Bills will lead many to lean on the over, but when you look deeper into that number 10 of those 13 rush attempts came in the 4th quarter when the game was in hand. The same happened the week prior against the Browns, when most of his carries came after Mahomes left the game. With this in mind we suggest betting the under on both props.
-UNDER- Scotty Miller 1.5 Rec. (-162 DK)
-UNDER- S. Miller 20.5 Rec. Yds (+100 DK)
This is recency bias at it's finest here folks. Many will look to these totals and want to go with the over remembering the long touchdown to end the first half in the NFC Championship. Don't fall for it. In 19games played this season Miller was under this yardage total in 11 of them. With AB back in the fold this week, in addition to Tyler Johnson getting more looks, we like both these props to go under.
-OVER- Ronald Jones 8.5 Rush Att. (-112 DK)
-OVER- Ronald Jones 35.5 Rush Yds (-110 FD)
With Playoff Lenny running wild this post season many are over looking, or dismissing ROJO and his ability. Back in week 12, Jones gashed this bottom tier Chiefs run defense for 7.33 YPA. Even with capped opportunity we think Jones will get enough yards on the ground and attempts for these props to both go over. We have Jones projected with a 10 carries for 42.5 yards and a 30% chance of scoring.
-OVER- Mahomes 41.5 Pass Att. (+115 MGM)
-UNDER- Mahomes 19.5 Rush Yds (+100 FD)
-UNDER- Mahomes 4.5 Rush Att. (-133 MGM)
Mahomes has been over this total in 9 games played this season, including the week 12 game in Tampa where he threw 49 times. The run game figures to be pretty much non-existent in this one, which will force Mahomes to use his arm to move the ball. As far as the rushing props we feel the turf toe could limit his attempts as well as yards. In week 12 he ran 4 times for 28 yards against this unit, healthy. Two weeks ago he rushed 5 times for just 5 yards against the Bills. We are more comfortable going with the under on these props considering the factors.
-OVER- Brady 300.5 Pass Yards (-110 MGM)
-OVER- Brady 296.5 Pass Yards (-110 FD)
-UNDER- Brady 40.5 Pass Att. (-149 MGM)
Brady has been over the 296.5 yard mark nine times this season, while also going over the 300.5 yard mark 8 times. Back in week 12 he threw for 345 yards against this same Chiefs defensive unit. In that game Brady threw the ball 41 times, which is just one of three games he went over this attempts line in his last seven starts. That 40.5 line is a big number and one we are more comfortable taking the under on.
-OVER- Tyreek Hill 6.5 Rec. (-143 MGM)
-UNDER- Tyreek Hill 92.5 Rec. Yds (+100 DK)
The reception prop here is pretty much a no brainer, as Hill is averaging 9.6 receptions a game in his last five post season appearances. Throughout the 2020 season Hill has averaged 8.5 receptions per game, making this prop an easy over. As far as the receiving yards prop we just have a feeling that it's a trap to take the over. Look back to week 12 when Hill went crazy catching 13/269/3, that alone will have all or most going with the over. Don't be fooled, we think he has a day similar to D. Adams in the NFC Title game where he caught 7/88.
-OVER- Chris Godwin 73.5 Rec. Yds (-110 FD)
Godwin runs 68% of his routes from the slot, which is where you beat this Chiefs secondary. Cole Beasley found success in the AFC Title game from inside and that was with one wheel. This week you put a healthy Chris Godwin in that same role, oh boy look out. Take the over here, as he showed with his week twelve 8/97/0 receiving line he can hit this 73.5 yardage mark.
-ANYTIME- Mike Evans TD (+115 MGM)
Evans has been a touchdown machine this season, recording 15 on the year. He had three games this season where he scored multiple times, including week 12 against these Chiefs where he found the end zone twice.