By: Little Italy (Publisher)
Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853
Current ADP: RB13 / 15.57 (NFFC)
DK Rushing Total Line: 1,025.5
DK Rushing TD Line: 10
Antonio Gibson did much better then I expected in his rookie campaign with all the obstacles before him (Covid altered off season, learning how to be a true RB, new scheme, etc.). The fact is Gibson looked great in the fourteen games he played which saw him score in eight out of the fourteen on his way to eleven rushing touchdowns on the season. Gibson had two game in which he rushed for multiple scores (WK10 @ Det (2) and WK12 @ Dal (3) ). The bulk of those scores (9) came within the red zone where he saw 29 carries over the 2020 season. Seventeen of those red zone carries came within the ten yard line, which he was able to convert seven of those or 41% into rushing touchdowns. Those numbers are very nice but I am not taking the over on this TD total. I believe Gibson gets more passing work in 2021 which will result in more receiving touchdowns, which will not count towards the rushing total obviously.
In terms of rushing yards we saw Gibson finish his 14 game rookie campaign with 795 yards, which ranked 16th out of RB's with at least 169 carries. He averaged the 8th most YPA (4.68) out of these same qualifying runners, adding a very healthy 451 yards after contact. With the expected uptick in passing volume I believe Gibson takes another step towards being that true workhorse running back, ala CMC, which will lead to more attempts and ultimately more yards on the ground, which will be aided by the longer season.
My Projection: 224 RA - 1,049 YDS - 9.35 TD's
How to Bet
-UNDER- 10 Rushing TD (-115)
-OVER- 1,025.5 Rush Yards (-115)