Chalk Plays: Lamar Jackson, Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews
I’m worried about the Raven offense a bit in this one. No it isn’t because Miami has a tough defense, it’s because the Raven offense could be tired. Last week this Ravens offense ran 90 plays, which usually means some sloppy sluggish play the following week.
All signs point to Waddle having a good night against the Ravens. Waddle has been seeing a lot of high percentage throws over the past few weeks, which is always a nice thing to see in terms of fantasy production. Waddle is very dangerous after the catch, and with the Ravens struggles tackling recently could mean big YAC production for Waddle tonight. Speaking of that Baltimore Defense, they run a ton of man coverage, and do you know who has been shredding man coverage for most of the season? Ding Ding you guessed it, Jaylen Waddle, this is why he is my captain for tonight.
Like Baltimore, the Miami defense predominantly uses man coverage. Yes Hollywood has been on a tear lately, but he takes a back seat in target share against this coverage, as it is the big TE that Lamar leans on against this scheme. I like Andrews matchup tonight against a Miami defense that is giving up the third most schedule adjusted receiving yards to opposing tight ends per game with 77.8 YPG. This also means that Nick Boyle is a sneaky cheap play in his first game of the season coming off IR. I could see him vulturing two TD’s in this one.
Speaking off good tight end matchups, Gesicki may have an even better one then Andrews. Baltimore has struggled against tight ends that are more like wide receivers this season, bleeding fantasy points to Travis Kelce and Darren Waller already this season. Baltimore is allowing the most schedule adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends with 79.7 YPG. That has me all in on Gesicki this week, and may also have a few line ups with him in the captain spot.
Over the last few week we have seen the rookies routes run per drop back grow to 81%. The fact that Watkins likely returns tonight doesn’t have me shying away from the rookie, as Watkins return will make Bateman less rostered then he should be. Nice pivot off of Hollywood and the aforementioned Watkins.
Let's Talk Skank:
Mack Hollins / Preston Williams:
With Parker and Fuller still out, we should see a lot of Mack Hollins again in this one. Last week he secured three balls for 22 yards and a score running 83% of the routes per drop back. Hollins is a player built for showdown slates, as on main slates we would never consider him. Same can be said for Williams who returns after being a healthy scratch last week. Williams when active has averaged about 46% of routes run per drop back, and is one of the most talented on this Miami offense.
Patrick Ricard and Patrick Laird could be basically free plays that pay off tonight. Last week we saw the Baltimore FB get into the end zone and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did it again tonight. Patrick Laird has been getting some run as that third back in the committee, but he offers sneaky garbage time upside as a pass catcher out of the backfield if Miami finds themselves getting blown out.
Kickers and Defense:
This could be a good week to play the kickers, especially one of the leagues top kickers, Justin Tucker. Like I stated above this Baltimore offense may be tired which could result in trouble finishing off series with TD’s. The offense should still move the ball down the field, but this could be a big FG night for Mr. Clutch.