TNF Primer: Week Five Rams/Seahawks

Updated: Oct 14

By: Little Italy (Publisher)

Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853

Current DK Sports Book Line: LAR (-2.5) 54.5 Total


The Homers:

The Seattle Seahawks come into their week five divisional matchup as 2.5 point home dogs. What do I expect out of this (2-2) Seattle squad this week? A lot of the ground game being utilized. I envision Seattle trying to control the pace of this game in an attempt to limit this high-powered Sean McVay offense. Now last week we saw a lot of Alex Collins in the second half of the Seahawks week four win over the Lance led 49ers, which has those Carson owners in a frenzy. One word, CHILL!! I believe the Seahawks did this in an effort to rest Carson for the short week ahead. Look at first half carries in that contest Carson still carried 7 times compared to Collins 3, which is 70% carry share, right where the league average is for the “lead back” workload. The Rams come into Thursday Night ranked 22nd in run DVOA so a big bounce back week could be on tap for Carson. This shouldn’t come as a surprise as last week both James Conner and Chase Edmonds found great success against this unit, as did David Montgomery in week one. It’s as though the Rams are inviting teams to run the ball against them.

(NOTE: Chris Carson is dealing with a neck injury and missed Wed. Practice which makes his status questionable entering tonight's game. If Carson were to miss the game it would be Alex Collins who would be in line for a big work load out of the backfield.)


I will be looking to fade the receivers a bit in this matchup, especially D.K. Metcalf who did nothing in two games last season against these Rams. I fully expect Metcalf to be paired up quite a bit with Jalen Ramsey. In the two games played last season Metcalf totaled a combined 8-89-1 receiving line. Tyler Lockett combined for an 8-110-0 receiving line in two games played. I will look to Gerald Everett if he suits up after clearing his final Covid test. This is a “REVENGE GAME” for the tight end, and we all know that we love that narrative. However, I love the fact that LA is giving up the 8th most points to the position, and I will be looking to take advantage of that in DFS Showdown Slates this week, more so than in season long.

(UPDATE: Gerald Everett and Chris Carson are inactive tonight)


The Travelers:

The Rams come into this week after having suffered Sean McVay’s first loss to the Cardinals since becoming head coach, so you know he will have this team primed and ready to bounce back. A key component to this bounce back will be Darrell Henderson, who looked fantastic in his first game back in the lineup. Seattle is giving up the second most points to the running back position this year, averaging 29 attempts and 128.5 rush yards per game allowed. Many were worried Sony Michel would eat into his workload but that doesn’t appear to be an immediate concern, as last week Henderson saw 82% of the teams RB Carries out carrying Michele 14 to 3, and like I mentioned before this was in his first game back from injury.


Matthew Stafford and this torrid passing attack will also be able to find success this week. Seattle likes to run a lot of single high safety, meaning either DeSean Jackson or Van Jefferson will see a number of one on one’s down field, which is advantage Rams. I lean towards Van Jefferson over DeSean though, as Jefferson has seen his routes run per drop back grow to 82% where he has seen at least six targets over the past two weeks. I think Tyler Higbee could find the end zone this week as well. Cooper Kupp has been on fire, though he is coming off his worst game of 2021, where he caught just 5-64, ya that tells you just how hot he’s been if this is a down week receiving line. However, the best player to target from the Rams this week will be discussed below in my DFS Gem. Who is it? Let’s scroll down and take a look.


DFS GEM:

Robert Woods is my DFS Gem of the week, as there are multiple signs leading me to believe a smash game is coming. For starters, we have seen Woods’ routes run per drop back raise from 67% in week one all the way back to 92%. Another piece of evidence is McVay coming out Monday stating he wants to get Woods more involved. This coach speak usually is ignored, but not when McVay states it. Just look to two weeks ago when he stated he wanted to get DeSean more involved, and that next game he came out for his best game of the season. I believe that will happen again, this time for Woods. The last sign, and arguably, the most important sign being the fact that Woods lines up on the right side of the formation, meaning he will see a lot of Tre Flowers, who was actually benched for his poor play last week and replaced by Sidney Jones, who also played poorly. Through 2021, this combo has allowed 18 yards per reception and an absurd 15.1 yards per target. Woods is the perfect player to fire up in your captain spot this week as he is cheaper than most of the big name players and figures to be less owned having had such a slow start to the season. Fire him up everywhere you own him this week.


HOW WE BETTING TONIGHT?

The current line on DK is SEA (+2.5) with a total of 54.5. In the past two seasons this matchup has gone UNDER this total in three out of four games, with the only over being 59. We can’t read too much into that as that was with Jared Goff under center. With that said, I am not betting the total this week. I will be betting the Rams (-2.5) before it climbs to three. History tells us McVay coming off a loss covers the spread 67% of the time. When we dig a bit deeper, we find that McVay is (8-2) (80% cover rate) coming off a loss while traveling, which bodes well for the Rams. I will also look to place Seattle in a teaser this week with Minnesota where I tease Seattle up to (+8.5) and Minnesota down to (-3.5).


Player Props to Target:

*ALWAYS ONE UNIT BETS UNLESS STATED*

TNF Season Record: (14-13) 52%


Robert Woods 60.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Yes he has only been over this total once in the first four games, but he gets the best WR matchup in the contest, as the combo of Flowers and Jones has given up 21 receptions for 378 yards and three TD’s this season. (W)


Chris Carson 11.5 Rush Attempts (Monitor Playing Status-Neck) (OUT)

-OVER- Like I stated above I am not worried about Alex Collins this week. I believe this coaching staff was resting Carson for a big workload this week. Carson has averaged 19.3 attempts in four games versus this defense, and I believe he gets upwards of 20 attempts this week. In the four games mentioned, he has been over this number in all (19, 27, 15, and 16).


Chris Carson 46.5 Rush Yards (Monitor Playing Status-Neck) (OUT)

-OVER- In a correlating move I am hitting the over on this 52.5 rushing yards line as well. In the four games played against this defense Carson has well exceeded this number in all (116, 118, 76, and 77).


Russell Wilson 271.5 Passing Yards

-UNDER- In eighteen games played against the Rams Wilson has exceeded this total only two times, the last being 2015 when he threw for 289. He came close in 2019 when he threw for 268 yards, but I am taking the history here and smashing that under. (W)


Russell Wilson 24.5 Completions

-UNDER- In a correlating bet I am once again betting on history, which is telling me once again to smash the under. Wilson hasn’t been over this number since 2015 (25) when facing the Rams. He came close in a game in 2017 when he completed 24, but since then has averaged just 17.8 completions per game against these Rams.(W)


Tyler Higbee 41.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- I like Higbee this week to go over this yardage total. In his last four games against the Seahawks he has averaged 64.3 yards per game, having gone over this mark in three of the four (47, 116, and 60). This mind you was before his current work load, which is seeing him run 75% of routes run per drop back. (L)


D.K Metcalf 71.5 Receiving Yards

-UNDER- In four career games against the Rams D.K has only topped this total once back in 2019 when he compiled 78 yards. In the other three contests, Metcalf averaged a mere 33.6 yards. I’m with history yet again and leaning towards the under.(L)


Darrell Henderson 64.5 Rush Yards

-OVER- Seeing 80% of the touches in this Rams backfield and Seattle is giving up 128.5 Rush Yards a game. My projections have him over 80 yards this week, smash the over. (W)


Darrell Henderson 88.5 Total Yards

-OVER- In a correlating bet I am going over on his total yards as well, as he has averaged 28 receiving yards over his last two games which will put him well over this total. (W)