TNF Primer: Week One

Updated: Sep 11, 2020

Kansas City Chiefs(-9.5) Vs. Houston Texans (53)


This game sets up well for both of these young ELITE quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes enters week one boasting a undefeated record in September (7-0). He has always looked sharp right out of the gate and this week one matchup we expect more of the same. Mahomes will be going against a defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the QB position in 2019. This Houston defense allowed on average 20.4 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, and enters this game without their presumed starter Gareon Conley, who is currently out at least the next three weeks (IR) due to an ankle injury. This will leave the secondary vulnerable for Mahomes to attack. Mahomes comes in as our second ranked quarterback for the week.

Deshaun Watson also has a very good matchup, as he takes on a KC defensive unit that can be exploited. Last year in two meetings Watson put up over 27 fantasy points in each outing (week 6 over 27 FP and Div. round over 33 FP). Watson totaled three touchdowns through the air, while adding three on the ground combined in those two matchups. We like Watson to be able to put up similar numbers, as he and the Texans offense will have to play catchup in this one. Watson comes into week one as our fifth ranked quarterback.

Running Backs

There is a lot of excitement coming into this matchup for one rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Ever since he was drafted by Kansas City back in the spring the hype has been building and building. This hype reached hysteria level when incumbent Damien Williams opted out of the season. We must caution you though, temper expectations in this one. We do think CEH will have a solid debut as he comes in ranked as our tenth RB for week one, but we feel those owners looking for that Kareem Hunt type debut will be left feeling let down. This isn't because CEH is a lesser talent than Hunt, it is because Andy Reid will look to utilize Darrel Williams this week as well. So with that said Williams (RB38) becomes a viable Flex play against a defensive unit that allowed an average of 21 fantasy points per game in 2019, which makes them a top seven matchup for the backs. We all know Reid likes to get the running backs involved in the passing game, and the Texans allowed on average 15.1 fantasy points per game to the running back position in passing work alone.

The only back we are looking at from the Texans is David Johnson, Sorry Duke (RB57). David Johnson will meet a defensive unit that was very giving to the running back position last season, giving up an average of 22.1 fantasy points per game to the position. This is great so why does Johnson come in only ranked as our 22nd running back for the week? Well too answer that question the game script will not be in his favor, as a runner. Like we mentioned above the Texans our projected to be in catchup mode most of the night which will essentially force them to throw the ball most of the game. Johnson is a capable pass catcher out of the backfield and may be called upon to be one in this one, especially if Brandin Cooks is forced to miss the game tonight. You drafted Johnson so most likely you have to start him, and pray he finds the end zone, which we have him projected with a 40% chance to do so.

Wide Receivers

On the Kansas City side of thing we all know Tyreek Hill will be the main target out of this receiver group, and is why he comes in ranked as our sixth ranked wide out for the week. Hill had over 80 yards in the week 6 matchup in 2019, catching five balls. Hill also recorded two touchdowns in that contest. In the Divisional round matchup, even in come back mode, Hill was essentially shut down by Bradley Roby, who held him to a 3/41/0 game. We think it is very possible this defense will look to do the same in this matchup as well, which bodes well for Mecole Hardman. Hardman has that Hill speed and similar skillset and play style, which brings upside. The problem with Hardman is he isn't a big volume guy, but as he showed last season he doesn't need a lot of catches to make some fantasy noise. We wouldn't be surprised if Hardman broke one for a long score in tonight's opener rewarding those who started him. Hardman enters week one as our 50th ranked wide out. Sammy Watkins is hard to trust in this one. Yes he has immense talent and is capable, but we just have trouble trusting him in our line ups for week one. Watkins comes into week one ranked as our 53rd wide out.

On the other side of the ball we really are high on the new number one wide out for Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller. Fuller has shown in the past he is capable and talented enough to finish any given week as the best wide out for fantasy. Entering week one he has a great matchup against a questionable Chiefs secondary that allowed on average close to 20 fantasy points per game to the position in 2019. With Brandin Cooks questionable with a quad injury we feel Fuller is going to be in line for a lot of work. In regards to Cooks we can't trust him even if he does go, which opens up the door for Randall Cobb, who is our 51st ranked wide out entering week one. We have a sneaky feeling that Cobb could be relied upon by Watson in this one due to Cobb's veteran mindset and experience. Cobb will be able to find the holes in the Chiefs zone defense and be able to rack up some catches. We also like him to score in this one as well.

Tight Ends

There is only one tight end to target in this game and he is the man that enters the week as our 2nd ranked at the position, Travis Kelce. Kelce completely dismantled this Houston defense in the post season last year, catching ten balls for over 130 yards and three scores. This was due to the Houston defense selling out to stop Hill, which they did. We feel Kelce will pick up right where he left off in this one, and make a defense that was the 8th most giving to the position in 2019 pay once again.

Prediction: KC Wins 31-24

How to Bet:

KC Money Line (WIN)

Houston (+9.5) (LOSS)

Over 53 (WIN)

Mahomes Under 303.5 Passing Yards (WIN)

Watson Over 270.5 Passing Yards (LOSS)

Edwards-Helaire Over 81.5 Total Yards (WIN)

Draftkings Showdown Line Up: