TNF Primer: Week Six Bucs/Eagles

Updated: Oct 21

By: Little Italy (Publisher)

Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853



Current DK Sports Book Line: PHI (+6.5) 52.5 Total

The Homers:

The Eagles come into this TNF matchup against the defending Super Bowl Champion Bucs as 6.5 home dogs. The Eagles are in need of a win in this contest as they are currently two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East sitting third. The Eagles certainly are going to be given every chance to win this game this week, as the Bucs are banged up on both sides of the ball. The biggest area the Bucs are going to be vulnerable is in the secondary. All the Bucs top corners and now top LB Lovante David are out of the game tonight. Since these injuries Tampa Bay has been forced to become one of the most blitz happy teams in the league, however despite this are only ranked 25th in pressure rate. What does this number tell us? It is telling us that teams have figured out this version of the Bucs defense, which is to find success you stay away from their top ranked run defense and target the secondary with short quick passes. Jalen Hurts is the type of QB you want against this type of defense. Hurts is very good at shredding blitzing defenses (.114 passer rating when blitzed) as he can get the ball out quickly as well as still being able to run away from the pressure. The fact that Philly is running fewer than any team in the league (14 RB carries per game average), which as a Sanders owner is maddening because you can’t use him, will actually help them this week. So I would expect nice days from Ertz (with Goedert expected to miss), Smith, Watkins, Reagor, and Hurts in this one. I will be looking to fade Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell in this contest, though every time I seem to fade Sanders in a tough matchup he finds a way to break off a long TD to save his day, but the smart play is to only view him as an RB3/ Flex play this week.


The Travelers:

As I mentioned above this Bucs team has been ravaged by injury on the defensive side of the ball, but they also have some key injuries that will effect this game as well. Gronk will miss yet another game with a number of internal injuries as a result of the rib injury. Chris Godwin is dealing with a knee/ankle which saw him make a number of limited practice runs this week. Godwin is expected to go, but he may have his routes run limited on the short week, which would be smart by this staff. If Godwin does see limited offensive snaps tonight we should expect second year receiver Tyler Johnson to run close to if not more than the 56% routes run per drop back he saw last week. Johnson is a sneaky play in showdown this week, as he is a very talented receiver. With Gronk out it seemed TB were running less two tight end sets last week, so couple that with the Godwin injury Johnson may be a nice low owned play.


Also how could I forget to mention that Brady himself suffered a thumb injury last week, which he said is nothing. However, the injuries on offense, the short week, and the fact that the Eagles are more vulnerable to the run then the pass may suggest a bigger ground attack day for the Bucs. This backfield was a headache entering the season with Gio, Lenny, and Rojo all figuring to get work. Through five weeks we have a clearer picture of what to expect out of this backfield and it turns out it’s simpler than we thought. If the team is in a trailing game script (Rams game only) than we will see Gio on the field more. In games the Bucs are in control or close in (the other four games played this season) then it is Lenny time. With that said, I fully expect it to be Lenny time tonight as well. Philly is ranked 23rd in run defense DVOA and 25th in defending passes to opposing RB’s, so Lenny should be busy in this contest.


DFS GEM:

Mike Evans is my DFS Gem of the week. Last week against man coverage, it was Antonio Brown’s day in the spotlight, as that is where he excels. This week it is going to be the big X receiver's turn to shine in the prime time spotlight for the Bucs. Philly runs a very heavy zone schemed defense meaning Evans will look to add to his Tampa Bay best 22 targets-16 receptions-and over 200 receiving yards versus zone schemed defenses this week, which I fully expect him to do.


HOW WE BETTING TONIGHT?

The Current DK Sportsbook line has TB coming into Philly as six and a half point road favorites. The total is currently set at 52.5. TB has questions at defense as stated above, in addition both these teams are top five in terms of offensive pace, meaning a bunch of plays should be run. With all this said we would have to lean toward the OVER this 52.5 total. In terms of the spread here if betting straight up we are going on the PHI side getting the points, as I believe they will be able to keep this game rather close and under a touchdown. If you want to bet TB I would suggest teasing them down to (-.5) because I do project a win from them, and pairing them with a KC (-.5) team who will not lose this week to the WFT.

Player Props to Target:

*ALWAYS ONE UNIT BETS UNLESS STATED*

TNF Season Record: (19-15) 56%

Tom Brady 26.5 Pass Completions

-UNDER- The thumb injury coupled with the fact that Philly can be beat on the ground should limit the Goats attempts in this game, which means his completions will come in under this number. In fact Brady has been under this number in two games played this season. (L)

Tom Brady 306.5 Pass / Rush Yards

-UNDER- In a correlating move I am taking the under on this total yards prop for the Goat. With the pass attempts down the passing yardage will be down as well. I have him projected with just 270 yards tonight, and there is no way he is rushing for over 36 yards. (W)


Leonard Fournette 62.5 Rushing Yards

-OVER- Like I stated above the fact that Philly is beatable on the ground and the injuries to the passing game, Lenny should be busy. This line is just a hair to low as I have Leonard projected for 72 rushing yards. Not to mention he has been over this total in each of the past two games (92 and 67). (W)


Mike Evans 67.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- I stated above Mike Evans is a beast against zone schemed defenses, and guess what Philly runs that scheme. Evans will get over this number easily, as he has done over the past four games. (L)


Tyler Johnson 9.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- This is a layup. With no Gronk and the two TE sets he brings coupled with Godwin being banged up, Johnson will get over this number with just one catch. (L)


Zach Ertz 43.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Yes he has only been over this number in two games this season, but Dallas Goedert is likely out. In addition, Tampa Bay has given up 36 catches to the TE position through five weeks, which is tied for the leagues most by a defense. (L)


Miles Sanders 62.5 Total Yards

-UNDER- This rushing attack has been nonexistent this season for the Eagles to begin with, then you add in the fact that TB is one of the toughest defenses to run against and it isn’t hard to see why I love the under on this line. Over the past four weeks Sanders has come in under this total with room to spare 57, 55, 47, 50. (L)