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TNF Primer: Week Three

Updated: Sep 25, 2020

Jacksonville Jaguars(-3) Vs. Miami Dolphins (48.5)


Much like last weeks contest this TNF game features two quarterbacks oozing with Swag. We have the Mustache set to defend his home turf against the wildly old veteran the Beard. It is Fitzmagic taking on Minshew Mania. This contest sets up well for both quarterbacks on paper. For Minshew he is set to face a Dolphins defense that has been shredded on the ground and through the air by opposing quarterbacks. In week one Cam Newton rushed for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Last week Josh Allen threw for 4 touchdowns and 417 yards. So, we like Minshew to do damage as a runner and a passer tonight. Minshew has thrown for 3 TD's in each of his last three games. With the Dolphins top corner Byron Jones looking unlikely to play we like that streak to continue for Minshew.

The Beard has a pretty sweet matchup as well tonight. Fitzmagic will take on a Jaguar defense that just allowed Ryan Tannehill too throw for 4 touchdowns. Tannehill did this without his top wide receiver AJ Brown, who missed the contest due to a bone bruise. Fitzpatrick will look to utilize not only his wide receivers and tight end Mike Gesicki, but also his running backs. This Dolphins team will have to throw the ball to keep up with this suddenly dangerous high powered offense that Jay Gruden has got firing on all cylinders. With that said we have Fitzpatrick projected for over 30 pass attempts completing 65% for close to 270 yards. If you are in need of a streamer this week you can look to Fitz to inject a little bit of magic into your starting line up.

Running Backs

We really like this matchup for the Dolphins new "Lead Back" Myles Gaskin. Gaskin essentially came out of nowhere in week one to lead this Dolphins backfield that everyone had projected to be Jordan Howards. The team followed that same plan last week against the Bills, utilizing Gaskin more then any other back. For fantasy that usage has seen Gaskin be a solid RB2 for fantasy teams that were ballsy enough to use him in their starting line ups. With all the big name injuries such as McCaffrey and Barkley occurring last week, owners most definitely should look to Gaskin this week to start for their teams. The Jaguars are allowing on average 8.5 catches and 71 yards per game to running backs through the first two weeks. You couple that with Gaskin's role in the passing game over the last two weeks (10 catches for 62 yards), and that adds up to a potential solid night of production for Gaskin.

Much like Gaskin the Jaguars new featured ball carrier, James Robinson, has been very good in his own right. Through the first two weeks of his NFL career Robinson has totaled 164 yards on the ground averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Robinson is averaging roughly 16 carries a game so far this season. Robinson isn't utilized much in the passing game, as Chris Thompson is the teams primary pass catcher out of the backfield. However, Jay Gruden has done a very nice job utilizing Robinson much like his coaches at Illinois State utilized him, which is that A gap to A gap downhill runner, which he excels at. Robinson now see's a very good matchup against a Miami defense that has allowed on average close to 100 yards per game, and with Robinsons 18 touch per game average we like him to be effective in this contest tonight.

Wide Receivers

For the Jaguars there is a big question mark entering tonight's TNF showdown at the wide receiver position. That question mark is whether or not the team will have DJ Chark dressed for the game, as he is dealing with a Chest/Back injury, that has kept him as a limited participant at practice for much of the week. Our gut tells us he doesn't play tonight which opens the door for Chris Conley, Laviska Shenault, and Keelan Cole. Conley bounced back with 7 targets and 4 catches in week two after being a nonfactor in week one. The explosive rookie Shenault is averaging 6.5 touches per game, which will likely increase with a Chark absence. However, the wide receiver we are excited about tonight is Keelan Cole, who has actually been the teams most productive wide receiver over the first two weeks of competition. Keelan Cole has seen 12 targets over the past two weeks scoring in each contest. Like we alluded to above with Byron Jones likely missing tonight this bodes well for Cole. This Dolphins team has allowed the the 4th most fantasy points to the position over the last two weeks, so we recommend firing Cole up in tonight's contest.

The Dolphins number one receiver DeVante Parker has been questionable himself with a nagging hamstring injury, which has plagued him for much of his football career. Parker no doubt will play tonight, but we would temper expectations. Yes, the Jaguars are allowing 32.1 fantasy points per game to the position, but Parker will likely see a lot of rookie C.J. Henderson. Henderson has looked like the real deal over the past two weeks and is living up to his Bradley Roby comp we gave him coming into the league. Henderson has allowed on average just 3.5 catches a game for an average of 12 yards per reception and a QB passer rating of 67.5 when targeted. With Parker essentially being erased tonight we are looking to Preston Williams to take a step forward and regain that alpha dog persona he had prior to his season ending knee injury last season. So far through two games Williams has failed to top 50 yards. This is a concern however, he is seeing targets averaging 6 targets a game, and with Parker seeing the tougher matchup Williams has a prime opportunity to get going in tonight's matchup.

Tight Ends

Another player we are liking in tonight's matchup is tight end Mike Gesicki. Last week Gesicki exploded against a Bills defense with and 8-130-1 line. With Parker far from 100% and seeing tough coverage Gesicki should be in line for another big target day. Last week in that Bills game he saw 11 targets. This is the type of volume we want in our fantasy players. Gesicki and this new found volume take on a Jaguars team who is one of the most giving to the position, allowing 22.4 fantasy points per game. Last week this very defense gave up 4 catches for over 80 yards and two scores to Jonnu Smith. We bet Gesicki can match this production so if you have him fire him up in week three.

On the other side of the ball Tyler Eifert is the man at the position. Last week Eifert was targeted 6 times catching 3 for 36 and a score. This Miami defense has allowed 7.2 fantasy points per game to the position over the last two weeks. This number doesn't seem good for Eifert, however, this was against the Patriots and Bills who don't heavily target the position. So Eifert offers a sneaky showdown option this week, as Minshew will look to target him with Chark likely out, especially when inside the red zone. We have the tight end projected with a 40% chance of scoring tonight.

Prediction: Jaguars Win 27-21

How to Bet:

Jaguars Money Line (L)

Jaguars (-3) (L)

Under 48.5 (W)

Minshew UNDER 1.5 Passing TD's (W)

Gaskins OVER 17.5 Rec. Yards (W)

P. Williams OVER 44.5 Rec. Yards (L)

*Last Week Went (4-2) (66%) In Suggested Bets*

*TNF Season Best Bets Record: (8-4) (66%)*

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