By: Little Italy (Publisher)
Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853
Current DK Sports Book Line: Carolina (-8) 43 Total
QB change in Houston. No it's not captain rub down taking the reins this week, it's the rookie Davis Mills. Mills comes in for an injured Tyrod, who actually has looked very good under center through the first game and a half. If Tyrod was healthy and under center this game would have a little more excitement to it, but he's a no go. That leaves the rookie Mills who I have ranked as my QB30 entering the week. I do not have him projected for many yards against this very good Carolina defense. I have Mills projected for just under 200 yards, 197 to be exact. The Texans will look to keep the Carolina offense in check, in the hopes of leaning on their RB group, which in itself leaves a lot to be desired. Brandin Cooks has been off to a hot start and should be looked at a lot by the rookie Mills, who led this years draft class in first read rate. With that said Cooks should continue to see at least 30% of the target share in the passing attack. With Nico Collins joining Tyrod on IR and Danny Amendola on the wrong side of questionable, Chris Conley slots in as the next likely target out of the WR group. Conley should have an every down role this week having run 90% of routes in week two. He is a cheap option for DFS showdowns and this game is the only time I'd ever recommend playing him, but the one game slate and projected looks with Cooks likely being locked down, actually makes him a nice play.
Joe Brady has this offense off to a great start. The defense has also been very good through the first two weeks. Yes I understand they have had a pretty easy schedule to start the year, but the defense on all levels has the looks of a top 12 unit this season. In fact the unit is the #1 ranked in DVOA through the first two weeks. I like that success to continue this week as well in another plus matchup.
I expect CMC to be heavily involved in this one as every week is the case for him, and recommend he is the guy to place in the captains spot of showdown contests. CMC comes into week three ranked as my RB. Sam Darnold has been pretty good so far in this offense and has upside in plus matchups. Darnold makes for a nice streaming option this week coming in as my QB13. Could this be the week Robby Anderson gets loose in the secondary for a deep TD play? I believe it very well could be. With Anderson we see that he has assumed the role we expected him to have last season, that high ADOT / Low volume receiver. This type of player brings a weekly low floor, but a very high ceiling. Anderson comes in as my WR37 on the week. The rookie Terrace Marshall comes in ranked as my WR66, and also figures to be heavily owned in DFS slates this week. I would fade him and plug in Conley.
This week I am going chalk for my DFS GEM and selecting wide receiver DJ Moore. It appears that the final piece of the Moore puzzle has fell into place. Moore has always had upside, but just lacked end zone targets, which meant his TD upside was essentially non-existent. Last week we finally seen him receive an end zone target and what happened? He SCORED. Finally this usage coupled with his low ADOT / high volume role has him ready to jump into that next tier of fantasy wide receivers. I love Moore for the rest of the season and especially for week three. Yes I expect him to be heavily owned in this one game slate, but he is one you need to get into line ups. I love captaining CMC and then following that up with Moore. DJ Moore comes into week three ranked as my WR17.
HOW WE BETTING TONIGHT?
I fully expect Carolina to win this game outright, but I do not like this spread for them. I think it could be a bit of a trap, so I have teased them down to (-2) and paired them with BUF (-2). I also like the UNDER on the total. (W) (W)
Player Props to Target:
*ALWAYS ONE UNIT BETS UNLESS STATED*
TNF Season Record: (7-7) 50%
Brandin Cooks 69.5 Receiving Yards
-UNDER- Cooks has been off to a hot start to the year, but I think this is the week he starts to cool off. With Tyrod under center Cooks has caught ten of twelve for 182 yards averaging 15 yards per attempt. With Mills he has caught four of nine for just 28 yards averaging a mere 3 yards per attempt. Even with a 30% target share I believe he falls just short of this total. I have him projected with 4.5 catches and 65.5 yards.(L)
Davis Mills 209.5 Passing Yards
-UNDER- Mills could be the worst looking QB we see under center this season, especially with Carson Wentz now side lined, I kid I kid. I have Mills projected well under this big line, that will seem low to those betting, but it's not.(W)
DJ Moore 68.5 Receiving Yards
-OVER- This line is close to what I have him projected with (71) but I am going to hit the over here. (W)
Terrace Marshall 29.5 Receiving Yards
-OVER- I have a gut feeling that Marshall could finally show up this week in a plus matchup. He showed in pre season that he has immense upside and this yardage line comes well beneath my 37 yard projection. (W)
Robby Anderson 44.5 Receiving Yards
-OVER- This number is just way to low as I have Anderson projected for 60.5 receiving yards in this one. (L)
CMC 137.5 Total Yards
-OVER- This number is big but I think he goes big in this contest both on the ground and as a receiver. I have CMC projected with a robust 156 total yards in this contest. (INJURED IN 2ND)