By: Little Italy (Publisher)
Follow on Twitter: @LILITALY853
Current DK Sports Book Line: WFT (-3) 40.5 Total
The WFT is coming off a week in which they not only lost their 2021 opener but their starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as well. This means Taylor Heinicke will get the nod at quarterback in week two. Heinicke has flashed at times when given the opportunity, nearly pulling out the upset last post season against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Bucs, but he has also struggled with his decision making. This WFT will need to rely upon their top rated defense this week, who I like to bounce back after underwhelming against that LA Charger offense. The Team will also rely upon the promising young fantasy stud in the making, Antonio Gibson, more in this contest as well. Gibson showed signs of a future workhorse in week one as he not only saw 20 carries, but also more routes per drop back then J.D. McKissic (13 to 9), which is promising in his quest to be that next CMC type runner the coaching staff was hyping all offseason. I am worried about Terry McLaurin and have moved him down to a backend WR2 in my rest of season rankings until Fitz is back.
The New York Giants left a lot to be desired in their week one home loss to the Broncos. Quarterback Daniel Jones was his typical turnover prone self trying to work behind a struggling offensive line. Star running back Saquon Barkley started the year slow (10 carries for 26 yards) just like we anticipated, which I fully expect to carry over into week two against this strong front seven of the WFT. I just don't envision this uneven battle up front between the two lines to produce running lanes for Barkley to get free. Barkley will have to get his production via the passing game, which last week also left a lot to be desired, as the team seems hesitant keeping him in there to pass protect. It is also worth noting that Barkley ran a route on just 37% of the teams drop backs compared to Booker who saw a route run on 33% of drop backs, and Gary Brightwell 16%.
One bright spot for the Giants last week was how good WR Sterling Shepard looked catching seven balls for 113 yards and a touchdown. New highly paid WR Kenny Golladay didn't have a massive day, but he caught four balls for 64 yards, which is a decent number to build off of moving forward. This week will be tough for Golladay and Shepard on paper, but this unit just gave up seventeen grabs for one hundred and eighty yards to Mike Williams and Keenen Allen last week, the difference being they had a superstar in the making, Justin Herbert, throwing them the ball while the Giants have....... Well ...... Danny "far from superstar in the making" Jones .
Last weeks DFS Gem sure did deliver, as Antonio Brown shined under the Prime Time Lights. This week our Gem comes from the tight end position, as I feel Logan Thomas is in line for a nice week two. Last season with Heinicke under center Thomas was targeted twice as many times as any other player on the team. This coupled with his high percentage of routes ran last week (92%) makes him feel like a DFS Explosion ready to happen. Not to mention history is in his favor as back up quarterbacks' on a shortened week typically rely on their tight ends. I must also mention that in week one the Giants gave up a league high ten receptions to the TE position along with a touchdown, and had it not been for Albert O fumbling the ball near the goal line would have been two scores surrendered to the position by this Giants defense.
HOW WE BETTING TONIGHT?
If you were savvy enough to get the total at 44.5 before the line moved the UNDER was the no brainer way to bet. However, the current line makes it pretty close to my projection for the total so is a no bet for me. I will be betting the first half total though, which is currently 20 on DK Sportsbook. I envision a very low scoring first half in this contest (10-3) so wager a unit or two on that under.
Player Props to Target:
*ALWAYS ONE UNIT BETS UNLESS STATED*
Last week went (5-2) 71.4 % in props.
Logan Thomas 47.5 Receiving Yards
-OVER- Like I stated above I feel like Thomas is primed for a big night. Last week this defense allowed Noah Fant to accumulate 62 receiving yards. (L)
Saquon Barkley 52.5 Rush Yards
-UNDER- Last week he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry behind a line that didn't open up any run lanes for any of the backs. Barkley is still not 100% and going against a WFT defense that allowed just 91 yards on 25 attempts to Charger RB's last week. All these factors have the under as the best play to make, and I would be comfortable taking this down to 49.5 rush yards. (L)
Logan Thomas 4.5 Receptions
-OVER- In a correlating move I am hitting the over here as well as I have Thomas projected for 5. Again, this defense gave up a total of ten receptions to Denver tight ends last week. (W)
Antonio Gibson 2.5 Receptions
-OVER- Heinicke will be looking to the short to intermediate this week trying to stay clear of that pretty solid NY secondary. With Gibson being that receiver turned running back and running more routes then last years passing down specialist McKissic I envision Gibson sailing past this line. I have him with at least three this week. (L)
Antonio Gibson 68.5 Rush Yards
-OVER- Yet another over which always makes me a bit nervous, but my projections have Gibson with a very healthy 77 rushing yards. The Giants allowed 146 rushing yards to the Denver RB's last week and even taking out Gordon's 70 yard TD run this over hits. (W)
Antonio Gibson 16.5 Rush Attempts
-OVER- Yet another Gibson over here? Why not play a prop that just seems to low like this one. Last week Gibson saw 86.9% of the RB carries for The Football Team (20), out touching Patterson (2) and McKissic (1). The Giants also gave up 25 attempts to the tandem of Gordon and Williams last week, which if all stays relatively the same, would give Gibson 21 rush attempts. I have him projected slightly under that with 18, which still makes the over a play. (L)
Terry McLaurin 5.5 Receptions
-UNDER- This NY Giant offense will not do enough to warrant or force a pass heavy script for the WFT. In addition no Fitzpatrick and the short week will likely have this coaching staff leaning towards the cautious side of play calling meaning less shots to McLaurin who will be covered by James Bradberry. I project Scary Terry with only four grabs in this one. (L)