Week 15 RB Player Props to Target

Updated: Dec 23, 2020

Alvin Kamara (48.5 Rec. Yards/6.5 Rec./56.5 Rush Yards)

This is the week Kamara reminds us why he was being talked up as fantasy's best running back for most the season. How can I say this so confidently? Well two reasons one he gets his quarterback Drew Brees back, and two he gets a Chiefs defense that struggles against running backs. The Chiefs rank 31st in DVOA on passes to the position. The Chiefs also have the 30th ranked run defense DVOA. You couple this with what Kamara has done with Brees in and Thomas out of the line up and these totals look primed to take down. In games that have Brees in and Thomas out Kamara has averaged 8.3 receptions for 84.2 receiving yards. On the ground in these same games Kamara has averaged 12.5 rush attempts for 69 rush yards. I'm not touching the rush attempts prop, but the rest you bet your ass I'm going in on.

How to Bet: OVER, OVER, and OVER

Derrick Henry (113.5 Rush Yards/24.5 Rush Attempts)

Henry has been on an absolute terror which isn't surprising as this is King Henry season. This week against a Lions defense that bleeds production to opposing running backs should see the same dominant performance continue. The Lions hold the 26th ranked run defense DVOA so Henry should be fed early and often in this one. In games after week ten in which the Titans are home favorites, Henry has averaged 117.5 rush yards per game. With this in mind and the opponent Henry should run well past this total. In a correlating play I will look to the rush attempts prop which seems primed to take down as well. Henry has been over this 24.5 total in three of his last four outings and I like that to continue today.

How to Bet: OVER and OVER

Jonathan Taylor (72.5 Rush Yards/17.5 Rec. Yards)

Taylor since taking over this backfield has been at or over 90 rush yards in each of his last three games. This includes a 91 rush yard performance against the Texans, who he gets again this afternoon. Last week his receiving yard total of 15.5 burned us, as his first reception of 20 yards was enough to get us the over. However, his second reception lost five yards which put us under and into the loss column. I'm not one to hold a grudge so I am going back in on this weeks receiving total prop of 17.5. Taylor has been over this mark in each of the three games prior to last weeks swift kick to the undercarriage, so makes me comfortable to take the Over one more time.

How to Bet: OVER and OVER

Cam Akers (68.5 Rush Yards/ 18.5 Rush Attempts)

As I alluded to in my All In podcast, which you can catch Friday nights exclusively on Spotify, Akers seemingly has taken over this crowded Rams backfield. Last Thursday against the Patriots, Akers was featured and didn't disappoint on his way to over 150 yards on the ground. In Akers last three games he has been over 71 rushing yards, and in his last two has averaged 25 rush attempts per game. It seems to me the sportsbooks are still slow to the Akers party, as these two props just seem way to low, especially with the last place winless Jets coming to town this week.

How to Bet: OVER and OVER

Leonard Fournette (12.5 Rush Attempts)

This one hurts me to write up, but the clues are there for this to be one of the better running back props to target this week. With ROJO set to miss this weeks game in Atlanta, and OC Byron Leftwich pumping up Fournette over the last few days, it just seems like the right move to make. It is no secret that Tom Brady has looked far from great, and has prompted the team to focus more on the ground attack over the past few weeks, which is good news for Fournette this week. Yes, I am well aware that Shady is lurking, and was quite involved last week, but I am still willing to believe that Fournette gets more opportunities this week. Don't go crazy betting on this one, but put a few down on this prop and clench those cheeks while watching the game until that Over hits.

How to Bet: OVER