Week 17 Betting Card

Updated: Jan 4, 2021

Anytime Touchdown Locks:

Derrick Henry- In his last two games against the Texans, Henry has totaled 5 rushing touchdowns. As favorites going into Sunday's contest and a must win to secure the AFC South Henry will deliver, and that delivery includes at least one trip to the end zone. (W)

Adam Thielen- Thielen currently is sitting third in receiving touchdowns on the season with 14. With no Dalvin Cook and a projected heavy passing day against a weak Detroit defense for the Vikings, Thielen is set up to cap the season with at least one more score. If he does that would make the Vikings the second team in NFL history to have two players reach 15 touchdowns in a single season. (L)

J.K. Dobbins- Since week 12 the rookie has been incredibly efficient within the red zone. In fact over this span he has an insane 30.6% red-zone-carry percentage, which has allowed him to nose his way into the end zone in 5 straight contests. I feel he finds pay dirt at least one more time before the regular season comes to a close, against a Cincy defense that has allowed 9 rushing Touchdowns to backs this season.(W)

Rushing Player Props to Target:

Derrick Henry 118.5 Rush Yards

-OVER- Since the start of the holiday break I have been watching the docu-series the Serengeti, which is wonderfully done by the way. Entering week 17 Henry reminds me of a fierce Lion sneaking up on a wounded lost Zebra Foal, which will be played by the Houston Defense. In his last two meetings against this defense Henry has gashed them for 211 and 212 rushing yards. Despite JJ Watts attempts to light a fire under his "Trash Team" as he so beautifully spoke after last weeks embarrassing loss to the Bengals, the Texans will have no answer for Henry who will be eager to rebound after a down performance last week at Lambeau in the snow. Henry is also just 223 yards away from joining the Elite 2,000 yard single season club, which he will no doubt be motivated to secure.(W)

Lamar Jackson 65.5 Rush Yards

-OVER- Lamar needs just 98 rushing yards to reach 1,000 yards on the ground for the second year in a row. I like his chances of achieving that mark this week in Cincy in a must win game for the Ravens. In his last 4 games against the Bengals Lamar has put up 65+ three times, and in those three games have put up 119+ on the ground in two. I am no doubt betting the over on this prop this Sunday. (W)

Kyler Murray 36.5 Rush Yards

-UNDER- Much like the Houston defense above, Murray enters week 17 resembling more of a wounded Foal, then a fierce Predator. In last week's heart breaking loss to the 49ers, Murray ended the game in the dirt in a lot of pain. Murray will no doubt suit up this week in a must win game against the Rams in LA. This Rams defense and their 12th ranked QB pressure rate will no doubt be out for blood in this key divisional matchup. With no Goff under center and a slew of injured running backs, this defensive unit will be leaned on to get the victory. Yes, with pressure come flush and run from the QB, but Murray not 100% will have a tough time reaching this prop total. Oh ya not to mention, the last time these teams met Murray wasn't 100%, and he only totaled 15 yards on the ground. (W)

Jonathan Taylor 83.5 Rush Yards

-OVER- With needing only 84 yards to reach the 1,000 yard rookie season club, I feel this prop total is ripe for the taking. Since becoming the lead back in this Colt offense Taylor has looked as expected after being taken in the second round of last years draft. He has looked good as a receiver as well as a rusher, totaling at least 90 yards on the ground in three of his last five games. (W)

Jalen Hurts 56.5 Rush Yards

-OVER- Jalen has exceeded this total in each of his last three games. With no Miles Sanders, Hurts no doubt will need to get it done with his legs, and I'm willing to bet will lead Philly in rush yards when the final whistle blows. The nasty front seven of the Football team will no doubt be relentless with the pressure in a must win game. However, with that pressure comes opportunity for big chunk plays for mobile quarterbacks, such as Hurts. In fact, Lamar, Russ, Kyler, and Dan Jones all reached at least 50 yards on the ground against this defense. Hurts will be no different so I'm betting on his talent as runner in this one to get over this total for the fourth consecutive game. (L)

Receiving Player Props to Target

Darren Waller 61.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Waller has been a fantasy cheat code this season at a trash position, as he is a wide receiver playing the tight end position. He has also been a cash cow for us bettors taking the over on his yardage total over the past 6 weeks. During this span, including the debacle in Atlanta, Waller has averaged 108 yards receiving. With nothing but pride on the line this week in the Raiders season finale, I like Waller to do what he has done for five of the past six games, and that is blow this total out of the water. (W)

Brandin Cooks 71.5 Receiving Yards

-OVER- Cooks is just a miniscule 16 yards away from another 1,000 yards season. Cooks has been hot without Fuller in the lineup, where he has exceeded this yardage total four times in his last seven games. Cooks will likely garner the attention of Malcolm Butler as he did back in week six, when he caught 9 for 68. I like Cook to find similar success in the Texans season finale, as they try to spoil the Titans dreams of another AFC South crown. (W)

Justin Jefferson 72.5 receiving Yards

-OVER- With just 206 yards standing in his way of the all time rookie yards record (Bill Groman) which has stood for 60 years, I am high on Jefferson this week. Do I think he gets that record, no, but I do think Kirk will try like hell to get him close, especially going against a Detroit defense that has allowed 16 receivers to exceed this yardage total in 2020. Jefferson will be motivated and use his explosive route running to achieve the over on this total quite easily on Sunday. (W)

Davante Adams 6.5 Receptions

-OVER- This seemingly is a no brainer as Adams has gone over this total in 10 of 13 games played this season. The only thing giving me slight pause is the fact that the last time he failed to reach this total was back in week 12 against this very Chicago defense, where he caught 6 balls. However, I'm going with role, motivation, and talent on this one, as I feel the Packers will find pure joy in the fact that they send the Bears home, which means feeding Adams. (L)

Money Line Parlay

7 Leg (+455 on DK)

Baltimore ✔

Tampa Bay✔

Minnesota ✔

Indianapolis ✔

Seattle ✔

Tennessee ✔

New Orleans✔